KSFO / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

78%

70%

67%

52%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 74.8¢Risks 74.80u

AIFSNO 25.2¢Risks 25.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +25.20u · AIFS −25.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:25:04+00:00	53.0%	61.4%	58.5%	41.6%	88.7%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	53.0%	61.4%	55.1%	41.6%	88.7%
2026-10-16T05:55:59+00:00	53.0%	61.4%	55.1%	41.6%	88.7%
2026-10-16T06:41:09+00:00	53.0%	61.4%	55.1%	41.6%	88.7%
2026-10-16T07:26:19+00:00	50.8%	61.4%	55.1%	41.6%	95.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:30+00:00	50.8%	61.4%	55.1%	41.6%	95.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	50.8%	61.4%	55.1%	41.6%	95.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:44+00:00	50.8%	61.4%	55.1%	41.6%	95.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:59+00:00	50.8%	61.4%	55.1%	41.6%	95.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:27+00:00	50.8%	76.6%	61.5%	41.6%	95.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	50.8%	76.6%	61.5%	41.6%	95.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:52+00:00	50.8%	76.6%	61.5%	41.6%	95.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:58+00:00	54.0%	76.6%	61.5%	64.8%	95.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:59+00:00	54.0%	76.6%	61.5%	64.8%	95.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:48+00:00	54.0%	78.2%	61.5%	64.8%	95.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:59+00:00	54.0%	78.2%	61.5%	64.8%	95.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	54.0%	78.2%	61.5%	64.8%	95.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:32+00:00	54.0%	78.2%	63.3%	64.8%	95.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	54.0%	78.2%	63.3%	64.8%	95.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	54.0%	78.2%	63.3%	64.8%	95.5%
2026-10-16T19:37:17+00:00	54.8%	78.2%	63.3%	64.8%	97.2%
2026-10-16T20:22:42+00:00	54.8%	78.2%	63.3%	64.8%	97.2%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	54.8%	78.2%	63.3%	64.8%	97.2%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	54.8%	78.2%	63.3%	64.8%	97.2%
2026-10-16T22:38:11+00:00	54.8%	78.2%	63.3%	69.8%	97.2%
2026-10-16T23:23:39+00:00	54.8%	78.2%	66.9%	69.8%	97.2%
2026-10-17T00:09:45+00:00	54.8%	78.2%	66.9%	69.8%	97.2%
2026-10-17T00:55:01+00:00	54.8%	78.2%	66.9%	69.8%	97.2%
2026-10-17T01:40:14+00:00	52.4%	78.2%	66.9%	69.8%	97.2%
2026-10-17T02:25:24+00:00	52.4%	78.2%	66.9%	69.8%	97.2%
2026-10-17T03:10:31+00:00	52.4%	78.2%	66.9%	69.8%	97.2%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	52.4%	78.2%	66.9%	69.8%	97.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	97%	77.0°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	78%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	68.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	68.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	67%	67.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	65.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗