KSFO / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST75%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

78%

70%

67%

52%

Consensus

75%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 74.8¢Risks 74.80u

AIFSNO 25.2¢Risks 25.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +25.20u · AIFS −25.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—	83.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	89.5%	—	—	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	74.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	81.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	77.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	55.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	78.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	—	48.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	68.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	6.3%	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	51.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.2%	—	—	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	26.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	75.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	22.1%	—	—	56.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	58.6%	—	99.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	27.7%	56.7%	—	—	63.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	70.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	90.4%	47.9%	16.2%	—	72.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	65.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	42.0%	57.3%	69.6%	—	51.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.1%	—	70.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	15.1%	83.1%	58.3%	56.8%	—	57.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	74.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	93.3%	56.4%	94.5%	—	64.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	22.5%	96.7%	88.0%	50.8%	—	59.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.1%	16.2%	89.3%	—	—	2.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	18.4%	95.5%	92.0%	44.8%	—	71.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	16.6%	69.0%	77.8%	—	—	73.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	93.7%	51.8%	68.6%	—	58.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	54.7%	50.9%	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	11.1%	86.4%	21.0%	13.6%	—	49.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	11.4%	70.1%	59.9%	—	—	51.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.8%	84.9%	27.6%	18.3%	—	40.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	71.2%	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	77.0%	10.9%	45.6%	—	44.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	78.6%	36.7%	2.4%	—	46.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	11.0%	89.0%	57.0%	16.8%	0.8%	54.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	10.2%	92.2%	31.4%	71.7%	—	61.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	89.4%	55.0%	32.0%	62.3%	63.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	10.9%	—	62.7%	87.8%	—	65.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	97%	77.0°F	6.0°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	78%	69.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	68.5°F	5.8°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
National Blend	67%	68.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	67%	67.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	52%	65.8°F	5.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261021-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 16 · 04:25 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 66°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗