KSFO / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

82%

53%

36%

22%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 51.8¢Risks 51.85u

AIFSNO 48.2¢Risks 48.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +48.15u · AIFS −48.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T11:21:03+00:00	58.5%	52.4%	24.7%	31.2%	42.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	58.5%	52.4%	24.7%	31.2%	42.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:24+00:00	58.5%	52.4%	24.7%	31.2%	42.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:32+00:00	43.6%	52.4%	24.7%	31.2%	42.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:53+00:00	43.6%	52.4%	24.9%	31.2%	42.4%
2026-10-14T15:12:45+00:00	43.6%	53.4%	24.9%	31.2%	42.4%
2026-10-14T15:57:59+00:00	43.6%	53.4%	24.9%	31.2%	42.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:07+00:00	43.6%	53.4%	24.9%	31.2%	42.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:15+00:00	43.6%	53.4%	32.3%	31.2%	42.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	43.6%	53.4%	32.3%	31.2%	42.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:30+00:00	43.6%	53.4%	32.3%	31.2%	42.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:41+00:00	35.4%	53.4%	32.3%	82.0%	81.7%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	35.4%	53.4%	32.3%	82.0%	81.7%
2026-10-14T21:13:59+00:00	35.4%	53.4%	32.3%	82.0%	81.7%
2026-10-14T21:59:06+00:00	35.4%	53.4%	32.3%	82.0%	81.7%
2026-10-14T22:44:12+00:00	35.4%	53.4%	32.3%	82.0%	81.7%
2026-10-14T23:29:35+00:00	35.4%	53.4%	36.0%	82.0%	81.7%
2026-10-15T00:15:27+00:00	35.4%	53.4%	36.0%	82.0%	81.7%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	35.4%	53.4%	36.0%	82.0%	81.7%
2026-10-15T01:46:23+00:00	21.7%	53.4%	36.0%	82.0%	81.7%
2026-10-15T02:31:32+00:00	21.7%	53.4%	36.0%	82.0%	81.7%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	21.7%	53.4%	36.0%	82.0%	81.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	82%	74.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	82%	77.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	69.2°F	8.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	69.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	36%	66.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	64.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261021-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 14 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 69°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗