KSFO / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST52%Oct 15 · 03:16 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

82%

53%

36%

22%

Consensus

52%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 51.8¢Risks 51.85u

AIFSNO 48.2¢Risks 48.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +48.15u · AIFS −48.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	67.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	80.3%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.0%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	32.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	51.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	32.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	2.4%	—	—	35.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	—	33.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	37.6%	—	—	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	57.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	10.4%	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	97.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	13.5%	36.7%	—	—	43.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	78.1%	28.1%	6.5%	—	52.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	22.6%	35.7%	48.5%	—	30.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	5.4%	64.9%	35.8%	34.4%	—	35.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	53.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.8%	81.6%	33.0%	84.1%	—	41.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	60.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	88.8%	70.7%	27.2%	—	35.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	5.1%	72.6%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.9%	84.9%	77.2%	21.4%	—	46.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.0%	42.9%	53.6%	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	79.7%	25.9%	41.8%	—	31.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	27.6%	24.6%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	64.3%	6.2%	3.4%	—	22.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.5%	41.1%	30.8%	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	60.2%	8.6%	4.7%	—	15.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	40.6%	1.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.8%	46.7%	2.0%	17.6%	—	16.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	47.8%	11.8%	0.2%	—	17.5%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	63.7%	24.2%	3.3%	0.1%	22.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	69.6%	8.2%	37.0%	—	27.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.7%	62.3%	20.8%	8.0%	26.6%	27.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	25.9%	57.7%	—	28.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	82%	74.3°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
ICON	82%	77.5°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	53%	69.2°F	8.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	69.0°F	6.7°F	2026-10-14 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	36%	66.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	64.1°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261021-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 14 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 69°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗