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KSFO / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
85%
EPS
84%
AIFS
84%
WN2
77%
HRES
52%
Consensus
80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 68.7¢Risks 68.70u
VS
HRESNO 31.3¢Risks 31.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +31.30u · HRES −31.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 55.5% · 2026-10-18T04:14:52+00:00AIFS Single: 55.5% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00AIFS Single: 55.5% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00AIFS Single: 55.5% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00AIFS Single: 55.5% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00AIFS Single: 67.1% · 2026-10-18T08:01:53+00:00AIFS Single: 67.1% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00AIFS Single: 67.1% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00AIFS Single: 67.1% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00AIFS Single: 67.1% · 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00AIFS Single: 67.1% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00AIFS Single: 67.1% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00AIFS Single: 67.1% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.7% · 2026-10-18T04:14:52+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.7% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.7% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.7% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.7% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.7% · 2026-10-18T08:01:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.7% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.7% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 88.7% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.2% · 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.2% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.2% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 84.2% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 83.9% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 70.1% · 2026-10-18T04:14:52+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.3% · 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.3% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.3% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.3% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 77.3% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00IFS HRES: 70.6% · 2026-10-18T04:14:52+00:00IFS HRES: 70.6% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00IFS HRES: 70.6% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00IFS HRES: 70.6% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00IFS HRES: 70.6% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00IFS HRES: 52.4% · 2026-10-18T08:01:53+00:00IFS HRES: 52.4% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS HRES: 52.4% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00IFS HRES: 52.4% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00IFS HRES: 52.4% · 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00IFS HRES: 52.4% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00IFS HRES: 52.4% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00IFS HRES: 52.4% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00IFS HRES: 52.4% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00ICON: 65.2% · 2026-10-18T04:14:52+00:00ICON: 65.2% · 2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:00ICON: 65.2% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00ICON: 65.2% · 2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:00ICON: 65.2% · 2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:00ICON: 84.9% · 2026-10-18T08:01:53+00:00ICON: 84.9% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00ICON: 84.9% · 2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:00ICON: 84.9% · 2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:00ICON: 84.9% · 2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:00ICON: 84.9% · 2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:00ICON: 84.9% · 2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:00ICON: 84.9% · 2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:00ICON: 85.0% · 2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:0010-18 04:1410-18 09:3210-18 14:04
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:14:52+00:0055.5%88.7%70.1%70.6%65.2%
2026-10-18T05:00:16+00:0055.5%88.7%68.8%70.6%65.2%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:0055.5%88.7%68.8%70.6%65.2%
2026-10-18T06:30:29+00:0055.5%88.7%68.8%70.6%65.2%
2026-10-18T07:15:40+00:0055.5%88.7%68.8%70.6%65.2%
2026-10-18T08:01:53+00:0067.1%88.7%68.8%52.4%84.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:0067.1%88.7%68.8%52.4%84.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:22+00:0067.1%88.7%68.8%52.4%84.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:30+00:0067.1%88.7%68.8%52.4%84.9%
2026-10-18T11:03:02+00:0067.1%84.2%77.3%52.4%84.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:19+00:0067.1%84.2%77.3%52.4%84.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:57+00:0067.1%84.2%77.3%52.4%84.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:04+00:0067.1%84.2%77.3%52.4%84.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:15+00:0083.6%83.9%77.3%52.4%85.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON85%70.9°F7.2°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend84%68.0°F4.5°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble84%67.7°F4.2°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single84%68.8°F5.4°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 277%67.0°F4.7°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%64.0°F5.9°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending
IFS HRES52%63.9°F6.6°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261024-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗