KSFO / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST80%Oct 18 · 14:04 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

85%

84%

84%

77%

52%

Consensus

80%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 68.7¢Risks 68.70u

HRESNO 31.3¢Risks 31.30u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +31.30u · HRES −31.30u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	82.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	86.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	84.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	—	81.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	72.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	40.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	72.3%	—	—	—	—	69.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	34.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	55.7%	—	—	—	—	64.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	—	—	—	70.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	77.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	26.2%	—	—	—	—	73.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	96.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	38.8%	—	—	—	—	67.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	62.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	51.9%	—	85.2%	—	—	68.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	45.4%	—	82.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.6%	27.7%	87.2%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	78.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	27.5%	44.4%	92.6%	10.5%	—	59.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	95.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	75.1%	98.2%	65.7%	—	56.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	59.8%	94.0%	96.7%	69.1%	—	50.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	98.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	54.0%	98.0%	98.4%	92.5%	—	61.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	98.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	64.7%	89.9%	98.6%	87.1%	—	74.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	77.4%	39.8%	98.6%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	76.6%	95.0%	98.6%	97.1%	57.0%	89.5%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	83.9%	—	97.2%	—	—	94.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	85%	70.9°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	84%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	84%	67.7°F	4.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	68.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	77%	67.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	63.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261024-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 64°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗