KSFO / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

81%

80%

76%

76%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 86.2¢Risks 86.20u

WN2NO 13.8¢Risks 13.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +13.80u · WN2 −13.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T14:56:11+00:00	72.9%	69.8%	62.6%	40.4%	77.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:40+00:00	72.9%	70.1%	62.6%	40.4%	77.5%
2026-10-18T16:27:01+00:00	72.9%	70.1%	62.6%	40.4%	77.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:11+00:00	72.9%	70.1%	67.4%	40.4%	77.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:35+00:00	72.9%	70.1%	67.4%	40.4%	77.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	72.9%	70.1%	67.4%	40.4%	77.5%
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	73.5%	70.1%	67.4%	44.0%	91.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	73.5%	70.1%	67.4%	44.0%	91.5%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	73.5%	70.1%	67.4%	44.0%	91.5%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	73.5%	70.1%	67.4%	44.0%	91.5%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	73.5%	70.1%	67.4%	44.0%	91.5%
2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00	73.5%	70.1%	68.9%	44.0%	91.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	73.5%	70.1%	68.9%	44.0%	91.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	73.5%	70.1%	68.9%	44.0%	91.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	81.3%	70.1%	68.9%	44.0%	91.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	81.3%	70.1%	68.9%	44.0%	91.5%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	81.3%	70.1%	68.9%	44.0%	91.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	81.3%	70.1%	68.9%	44.0%	91.5%
2026-10-19T04:31:32+00:00	81.3%	70.1%	68.9%	44.0%	91.5%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	81.3%	70.1%	71.8%	44.0%	91.5%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	81.3%	70.1%	71.8%	44.0%	91.5%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	81.3%	70.1%	71.8%	44.0%	91.5%
2026-10-19T07:33:50+00:00	69.3%	70.1%	71.8%	76.1%	96.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	69.3%	70.1%	71.8%	76.1%	96.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	69.3%	70.1%	71.8%	76.1%	96.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	69.3%	70.1%	71.8%	76.1%	96.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:26+00:00	69.3%	70.1%	71.8%	76.1%	96.4%
2026-10-19T11:21:19+00:00	69.3%	79.6%	76.0%	76.1%	96.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:40+00:00	69.3%	79.6%	76.0%	76.1%	96.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	69.3%	79.6%	76.0%	76.1%	96.4%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00	81.3%	79.6%	76.0%	76.1%	96.4%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00	81.3%	79.6%	76.0%	76.1%	96.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	96%	76.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	69.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	68.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	79%	69.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	76%	69.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	76%	68.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261024-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗