KSFO / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST82%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

81%

80%

76%

76%

Consensus

82%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 86.2¢Risks 86.20u

WN2NO 13.8¢Risks 13.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +13.80u · WN2 −13.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	80.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	76.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	—	—	—	64.1%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	30.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	25.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	44.3%	—	—	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	56.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	59.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	67.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	93.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.5%	—	—	—	—	55.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	49.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	76.4%	—	—	56.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	72.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	22.3%	17.6%	78.7%	—	—	34.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	67.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	31.1%	86.3%	5.4%	—	45.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	16.1%	—	91.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.3%	62.3%	95.8%	51.5%	—	42.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	91.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	87.8%	92.7%	54.6%	—	35.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	95.2%	95.9%	85.1%	—	45.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	97.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	48.3%	80.5%	96.2%	76.2%	—	59.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	62.6%	24.6%	96.2%	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	61.3%	88.7%	96.1%	92.7%	39.6%	79.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	70.6%	—	92.8%	—	—	87.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	96%	76.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	69.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	80%	68.4°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	79%	69.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	76%	69.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	76%	68.4°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	66.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261024-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗