KSFO / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 13:10 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

16%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 12.9¢Risks 12.90u

EPSNO 87.1¢Risks 87.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +87.10u · EPS −87.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T19:28:00+00:00	5.6%	1.0%	1.7%	2.4%	37.9%
2026-10-18T20:13:10+00:00	5.6%	1.0%	1.7%	2.4%	37.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:19+00:00	5.6%	1.0%	1.7%	2.4%	37.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:28+00:00	5.6%	1.0%	1.7%	2.4%	37.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:35+00:00	5.6%	1.0%	1.7%	2.4%	37.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:45+00:00	5.6%	1.0%	1.9%	2.4%	37.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:57+00:00	5.6%	1.0%	1.9%	2.4%	37.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:11+00:00	5.6%	1.0%	1.9%	2.4%	37.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:38+00:00	9.2%	1.0%	1.9%	2.4%	37.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:48+00:00	9.2%	1.0%	1.9%	2.4%	37.9%
2026-10-19T03:00:00+00:00	9.2%	1.0%	1.9%	2.4%	37.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	9.2%	1.0%	1.9%	2.4%	37.9%
2026-10-19T04:31:32+00:00	9.2%	1.0%	1.9%	2.4%	37.9%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00	9.2%	1.0%	2.3%	2.4%	37.9%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00	9.2%	1.0%	2.3%	2.4%	37.9%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	9.2%	1.0%	2.3%	2.4%	37.9%
2026-10-19T07:33:50+00:00	2.7%	1.0%	2.3%	8.6%	43.5%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00	2.7%	1.0%	2.3%	8.6%	43.5%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00	2.7%	1.0%	2.3%	8.6%	43.5%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00	2.7%	1.0%	2.3%	8.6%	43.5%
2026-10-19T10:35:26+00:00	2.7%	1.0%	2.3%	8.6%	43.5%
2026-10-19T11:21:19+00:00	2.7%	0.5%	1.3%	8.6%	43.5%
2026-10-19T12:06:40+00:00	2.7%	0.5%	1.3%	8.6%	43.5%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00	2.7%	0.5%	1.3%	8.6%	43.5%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00	6.2%	0.5%	1.3%	8.6%	43.5%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00	6.2%	0.5%	1.3%	8.6%	43.5%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00	6.2%	0.5%	1.3%	8.6%	43.5%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00	6.2%	0.5%	1.3%	8.6%	43.5%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00	6.2%	0.5%	1.3%	8.6%	43.5%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00	6.2%	0.5%	2.3%	8.6%	43.5%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00	6.2%	0.5%	2.3%	8.6%	43.5%
2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00	6.2%	0.5%	2.3%	8.6%	43.5%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00	4.6%	0.5%	2.3%	16.6%	19.7%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00	4.6%	0.5%	2.3%	16.6%	19.7%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00	4.6%	0.5%	2.3%	16.6%	19.7%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00	4.6%	0.5%	2.3%	16.6%	19.7%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00	4.6%	0.5%	2.3%	16.6%	19.7%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00	4.6%	0.5%	2.3%	16.6%	19.7%
2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:00	4.6%	0.5%	2.3%	16.6%	19.7%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00	4.6%	0.5%	2.3%	16.6%	19.7%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00	9.1%	0.5%	2.3%	16.6%	19.7%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00	9.1%	0.5%	2.3%	16.6%	19.7%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00	9.1%	0.5%	2.3%	16.6%	19.7%
2026-10-20T04:05:42+00:00	9.1%	0.5%	2.3%	16.6%	19.7%
2026-10-20T04:51:24+00:00	9.1%	0.5%	2.3%	16.6%	19.7%
2026-10-20T05:36:36+00:00	9.1%	0.5%	2.7%	16.6%	19.7%
2026-10-20T06:21:43+00:00	9.1%	0.5%	2.7%	16.6%	19.7%
2026-10-20T07:06:50+00:00	9.1%	0.5%	2.7%	16.6%	19.7%
2026-10-20T07:52:02+00:00	6.9%	0.5%	2.7%	16.6%	16.2%
2026-10-20T08:37:10+00:00	6.9%	0.5%	2.7%	16.6%	16.2%
2026-10-20T09:22:37+00:00	6.9%	0.5%	2.7%	16.6%	16.2%
2026-10-20T10:07:49+00:00	6.9%	0.5%	2.7%	16.6%	16.2%
2026-10-20T10:54:18+00:00	6.9%	1.6%	1.9%	24.2%	16.2%
2026-10-20T11:39:48+00:00	6.9%	1.6%	1.9%	24.2%	16.2%
2026-10-20T12:24:54+00:00	6.9%	1.6%	1.9%	24.2%	16.2%
2026-10-20T13:10:06+00:00	6.9%	1.6%	1.9%	24.2%	16.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	24%	74.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	16%	72.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	7%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	70.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	69.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	70.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261024-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 18 · 19:28 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗