KSFO / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

24%

16%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 12.9¢Risks 12.90u

EPSNO 87.1¢Risks 87.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +87.10u · EPS −87.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	11.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	10.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	9.0%	—	—	—	—	7.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	6.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	9.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	2.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	10.7%	—	—	3.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	7.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.1%	10.8%	—	—	0.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.5%	15.3%	0.0%	—	1.3%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	2.9%	31.7%	1.5%	—	0.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	19.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.8%	12.9%	20.0%	1.5%	—	0.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	31.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	23.0%	25.5%	8.7%	—	0.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	4.9%	23.2%	3.6%	—	1.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.1%	21.4%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	7.7%	19.0%	11.8%	0.2%	3.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	10.8%	—	—	6.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	24%	74.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	16%	72.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	7%	71.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	7%	70.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	69.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	2%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	2%	70.0°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261024-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 18 · 19:28 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗