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KSFO / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
96%
AIFS
84%
EPS
75%
WN2
65%
HRES
58%
Consensus
77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 77.1¢Risks 77.10u
VS
HRESNO 22.9¢Risks 22.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +22.90u · HRES −22.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 76.7% · 2026-10-19T04:31:32+00:00AIFS Single: 76.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00AIFS Single: 76.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00AIFS Single: 76.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00AIFS Single: 60.9% · 2026-10-19T07:33:50+00:00AIFS Single: 60.9% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00AIFS Single: 60.9% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00AIFS Single: 60.9% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00AIFS Single: 60.9% · 2026-10-19T10:35:26+00:00AIFS Single: 60.9% · 2026-10-19T11:21:19+00:00AIFS Single: 60.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:40+00:00AIFS Single: 60.9% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00AIFS Single: 83.6% · 2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00AIFS Single: 83.7% · 2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.7% · 2026-10-19T04:31:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.7% · 2026-10-19T07:33:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.6% · 2026-10-19T11:21:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.6% · 2026-10-19T12:06:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.6% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.6% · 2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 74.6% · 2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 66.7% · 2026-10-19T04:31:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-19T07:33:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 69.5% · 2026-10-19T10:35:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.0% · 2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 65.0% · 2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00IFS HRES: 75.7% · 2026-10-19T04:31:32+00:00IFS HRES: 75.7% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00IFS HRES: 75.7% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00IFS HRES: 75.7% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00IFS HRES: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:50+00:00IFS HRES: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00IFS HRES: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00IFS HRES: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00IFS HRES: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:26+00:00IFS HRES: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T11:21:19+00:00IFS HRES: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T12:06:40+00:00IFS HRES: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00IFS HRES: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00IFS HRES: 57.8% · 2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00ICON: 56.0% · 2026-10-19T04:31:32+00:00ICON: 56.0% · 2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:00ICON: 56.0% · 2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:00ICON: 56.0% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00ICON: 96.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:50+00:00ICON: 96.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:00ICON: 96.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:00ICON: 96.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:00ICON: 96.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:26+00:00ICON: 96.4% · 2026-10-19T11:21:19+00:00ICON: 96.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:40+00:00ICON: 96.4% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00ICON: 96.4% · 2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00ICON: 96.4% · 2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:0010-19 04:3110-19 09:4910-19 14:28
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:31:32+00:0076.7%66.7%66.7%75.7%56.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:08+00:0076.7%66.7%69.5%75.7%56.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:16+00:0076.7%66.7%69.5%75.7%56.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:0076.7%66.7%69.5%75.7%56.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:50+00:0060.9%66.7%69.5%57.8%96.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:24+00:0060.9%66.7%69.5%57.8%96.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:30+00:0060.9%66.7%69.5%57.8%96.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:37+00:0060.9%66.7%69.5%57.8%96.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:26+00:0060.9%66.7%69.5%57.8%96.4%
2026-10-19T11:21:19+00:0060.9%74.6%65.0%57.8%96.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:40+00:0060.9%74.6%65.0%57.8%96.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:0060.9%74.6%65.0%57.8%96.4%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:0083.6%74.6%65.0%57.8%96.4%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:0083.7%74.6%65.0%57.8%96.4%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
ICON96%78.3°F7.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single84%70.8°F5.4°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble75%68.4°F4.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend74%69.0°F5.5°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 265%67.3°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES58%66.8°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%66.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261025-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗