KSFO / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST77%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

96%

84%

75%

65%

58%

Consensus

77%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 77.1¢Risks 77.10u

HRESNO 22.9¢Risks 22.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +22.90u · HRES −22.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.9%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	74.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	78.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	71.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	72.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	69.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	78.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	44.1%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	47.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	71.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	62.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	38.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	—	—	—	—	54.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	19.3%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	—	47.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.8%	—	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	79.8%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	93.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	18.0%	13.2%	98.2%	—	—	43.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	96.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	29.2%	96.8%	13.7%	—	40.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	51.4%	—	98.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	31.7%	95.4%	98.2%	90.4%	—	50.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	98.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	45.4%	74.9%	98.4%	33.7%	—	62.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	50.8%	—	95.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	61.8%	95.0%	97.3%	97.5%	56.4%	81.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	98.4%	—	—	87.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	96%	78.3°F	7.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	84%	70.8°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	75%	68.4°F	4.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	74%	69.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	65%	67.3°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	66.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	66.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261025-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗