KSFO / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST55%Oct 19 · 10:35 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

69%

56%

55%

45%

39%

Consensus

55%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 53.8¢Risks 53.80u

ICONNO 46.2¢Risks 46.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.20u · ICON −46.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	36.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	46.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	16.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	15.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	42.2%	—	—	38.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	96.8%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	25.2%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	94.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	10.2%	98.4%	—	—	43.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	31.4%	—	97.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	58.4%	97.0%	3.9%	—	43.7%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	99.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	21.5%	51.5%	98.1%	97.4%	8.2%	67.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	48.5%	—	98.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	97.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	69%	69.7°F	6.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	67.5°F	7.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	67.2°F	5.5°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	67.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	45%	65.8°F	5.8°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	39%	63.6°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261026-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 67°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗