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KSFO / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
97%
ICON
65%
WN2
52%
EPS
48%
AIFS
39%
Consensus
64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 67.8¢Risks 67.85u
VS
AIFSNO 32.1¢Risks 32.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +32.15u · AIFS −32.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 31.9% · 2026-10-19T11:21:19+00:00AIFS Single: 31.9% · 2026-10-19T12:06:40+00:00AIFS Single: 31.9% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00AIFS Single: 45.8% · 2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00AIFS Single: 37.0% · 2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00AIFS Single: 37.0% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00AIFS Single: 37.0% · 2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00AIFS Single: 37.0% · 2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00AIFS Single: 37.0% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00AIFS Single: 37.0% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00AIFS Single: 37.0% · 2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:00AIFS Single: 37.0% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00AIFS Single: 39.0% · 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.0% · 2026-10-19T11:21:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.0% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.0% · 2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.0% · 2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.1% · 2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.1% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.1% · 2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.1% · 2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.1% · 2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.1% · 2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.1% · 2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.1% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.1% · 2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.1% · 2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.1% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.1% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.1% · 2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.1% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.1% · 2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.1% · 2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00IFS Ensemble: 48.1% · 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.3% · 2026-10-19T11:21:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.3% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.3% · 2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.3% · 2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.3% · 2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.3% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 33.3% · 2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 41.5% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.3% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.3% · 2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.3% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.3% · 2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.3% · 2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.3% · 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00IFS HRES: 57.4% · 2026-10-19T11:21:19+00:00IFS HRES: 57.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:40+00:00IFS HRES: 57.4% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00IFS HRES: 57.4% · 2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00IFS HRES: 57.4% · 2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00IFS HRES: 57.4% · 2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00IFS HRES: 57.4% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00IFS HRES: 57.4% · 2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00IFS HRES: 57.4% · 2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00IFS HRES: 57.4% · 2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00IFS HRES: 57.4% · 2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00IFS HRES: 96.7% · 2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00IFS HRES: 96.7% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00IFS HRES: 96.7% · 2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00IFS HRES: 96.7% · 2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00IFS HRES: 96.7% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00IFS HRES: 96.7% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00IFS HRES: 96.7% · 2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:00IFS HRES: 96.7% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00IFS HRES: 96.7% · 2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00IFS HRES: 96.7% · 2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00IFS HRES: 96.7% · 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00ICON: 31.2% · 2026-10-19T11:21:19+00:00ICON: 31.2% · 2026-10-19T12:06:40+00:00ICON: 31.2% · 2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:00ICON: 31.2% · 2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:00ICON: 31.3% · 2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:00ICON: 31.3% · 2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:00ICON: 31.3% · 2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:00ICON: 31.3% · 2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:00ICON: 31.3% · 2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:00ICON: 31.3% · 2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:00ICON: 31.3% · 2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:00ICON: 64.8% · 2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:00ICON: 64.8% · 2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:00ICON: 64.8% · 2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:00ICON: 64.8% · 2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:00ICON: 64.8% · 2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:00ICON: 64.8% · 2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:00ICON: 64.8% · 2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:00ICON: 64.8% · 2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:00ICON: 64.8% · 2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:00ICON: 64.8% · 2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:00ICON: 64.8% · 2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:0010-19 11:2110-19 19:4510-20 03:18
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T11:21:19+00:0031.9%48.0%33.3%57.4%31.2%
2026-10-19T12:06:40+00:0031.9%48.0%33.3%57.4%31.2%
2026-10-19T12:51:53+00:0031.9%48.0%33.3%57.4%31.2%
2026-10-19T13:37:04+00:0045.8%48.0%33.3%57.4%31.2%
2026-10-19T14:28:06+00:0045.8%48.0%33.3%57.4%31.3%
2026-10-19T15:13:55+00:0045.8%48.1%33.3%57.4%31.3%
2026-10-19T15:59:10+00:0045.8%48.1%33.3%57.4%31.3%
2026-10-19T16:44:24+00:0045.8%48.1%33.3%57.4%31.3%
2026-10-19T17:29:35+00:0045.8%48.1%41.5%57.4%31.3%
2026-10-19T18:14:42+00:0045.8%48.1%41.5%57.4%31.3%
2026-10-19T19:00:20+00:0045.8%48.1%41.5%57.4%31.3%
2026-10-19T19:45:33+00:0037.0%48.1%41.5%96.7%64.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:42+00:0037.0%48.1%41.5%96.7%64.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:56+00:0037.0%48.1%41.5%96.7%64.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:05+00:0037.0%48.1%41.5%96.7%64.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:17+00:0037.0%48.1%41.5%96.7%64.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:31+00:0037.0%48.1%52.3%96.7%64.8%
2026-10-20T00:17:10+00:0037.0%48.1%52.3%96.7%64.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:40+00:0037.0%48.1%52.3%96.7%64.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:51+00:0039.0%48.1%52.3%96.7%64.8%
2026-10-20T02:33:00+00:0039.0%48.1%52.3%96.7%64.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:08+00:0039.0%48.1%52.3%96.7%64.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES97%80.3°F6.4°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
ICON65%72.3°F10.0°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
National Blend54%69.0°F5.5°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
WeatherNext 252%68.8°F5.1°F2026-10-19 12:00Pending
IFS Ensemble48%68.2°F6.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single39%66.9°F5.7°F2026-10-19 18:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261026-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗