KSFO / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST64%Oct 20 · 03:18 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

65%

52%

48%

39%

Consensus

64%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 67.8¢Risks 67.85u

AIFSNO 32.1¢Risks 32.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +32.15u · AIFS −32.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	35.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	30.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	9.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	30.8%	—	—	27.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	6.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	8.8%	—	93.9%	—	—	22.5%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	43.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	16.0%	—	—	22.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	90.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	12.1%	5.4%	96.5%	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	95.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	14.1%	44.4%	93.7%	1.7%	—	30.5%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	97.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	12.4%	37.1%	95.6%	94.3%	3.9%	53.6%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	95.6%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	97%	80.3°F	6.4°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
ICON	65%	72.3°F	10.0°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
National Blend	54%	69.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	52%	68.8°F	5.1°F	2026-10-19 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	48%	68.2°F	6.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	39%	66.9°F	5.7°F	2026-10-19 18:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261026-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗