KSFO / Fri Nov 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Nov 12 · 15:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

61%

50%

13%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 50.1¢Risks 50.05u

ICONNO 49.9¢Risks 49.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.95u · ICON −49.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-11-12T15:19:55+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-11-07T03:38:30+00:00	48.6%	72.3%	55.4%	82.9%	57.3%
2026-11-07T04:23:59+00:00	48.6%	72.8%	55.4%	82.9%	57.3%
2026-11-07T05:09:10+00:00	48.6%	72.8%	57.7%	82.9%	57.3%
2026-11-07T05:54:18+00:00	48.6%	72.8%	57.7%	82.9%	57.3%
2026-11-07T06:39:25+00:00	48.6%	72.8%	57.7%	82.9%	57.3%
2026-11-07T07:24:37+00:00	55.9%	72.8%	57.7%	82.9%	81.5%
2026-11-07T08:09:46+00:00	55.9%	72.8%	57.7%	82.9%	81.5%
2026-11-07T08:54:54+00:00	55.9%	72.8%	57.7%	82.9%	81.5%
2026-11-07T09:40:01+00:00	55.9%	72.8%	57.7%	82.9%	81.5%
2026-11-07T10:25:16+00:00	55.9%	72.8%	57.7%	75.4%	81.5%
2026-11-07T11:10:42+00:00	55.9%	76.7%	62.5%	75.4%	81.5%
2026-11-07T11:55:56+00:00	55.9%	76.7%	62.5%	75.4%	81.5%
2026-11-07T12:41:04+00:00	55.9%	76.7%	62.5%	75.4%	81.5%
2026-11-07T13:26:18+00:00	47.8%	76.7%	62.5%	75.4%	81.5%
2026-11-07T14:20:40+00:00	47.8%	77.1%	62.5%	75.4%	81.5%
2026-11-07T15:05:49+00:00	47.8%	77.1%	62.5%	75.4%	81.5%
2026-11-07T15:50:55+00:00	47.8%	77.1%	62.5%	75.4%	81.5%
2026-11-07T16:37:56+00:00	47.8%	77.1%	62.5%	75.4%	81.5%
2026-11-07T17:23:13+00:00	47.8%	77.1%	61.7%	75.4%	81.5%
2026-11-07T18:08:22+00:00	47.8%	77.1%	61.7%	75.4%	81.5%
2026-11-07T18:53:29+00:00	47.8%	77.1%	61.7%	75.4%	81.5%
2026-11-07T19:38:50+00:00	55.2%	77.1%	61.7%	75.4%	86.0%
2026-11-07T20:24:12+00:00	55.2%	77.1%	61.7%	75.4%	86.0%
2026-11-07T21:09:19+00:00	55.2%	77.1%	61.7%	75.4%	86.0%
2026-11-07T21:54:26+00:00	55.2%	77.1%	61.7%	75.4%	86.0%
2026-11-07T22:39:33+00:00	55.2%	77.1%	61.7%	73.9%	86.0%
2026-11-07T23:24:40+00:00	55.2%	77.1%	63.4%	73.9%	86.0%
2026-11-08T00:09:56+00:00	55.2%	77.1%	63.4%	73.9%	86.0%
2026-11-08T00:55:14+00:00	55.2%	77.1%	63.4%	73.9%	86.0%
2026-11-08T01:40:25+00:00	55.9%	77.1%	63.4%	73.9%	86.0%
2026-11-08T02:25:33+00:00	55.9%	77.1%	63.4%	73.9%	86.0%
2026-11-08T03:10:41+00:00	55.9%	77.1%	63.4%	73.9%	86.0%
2026-11-10T04:38:10+00:00	48.2%	86.2%	58.5%	61.8%	94.0%
2026-11-10T05:23:40+00:00	48.2%	86.2%	57.4%	61.8%	94.0%
2026-11-10T06:08:54+00:00	48.2%	86.2%	57.4%	61.8%	94.0%
2026-11-10T06:54:01+00:00	48.2%	86.2%	57.4%	61.8%	94.0%
2026-11-10T07:39:11+00:00	49.0%	86.2%	57.4%	61.8%	66.6%
2026-11-10T08:24:21+00:00	49.0%	86.2%	57.4%	61.8%	66.6%
2026-11-10T09:09:30+00:00	49.0%	86.2%	57.4%	61.8%	66.6%
2026-11-10T09:54:38+00:00	49.0%	86.2%	57.4%	61.8%	66.6%
2026-11-10T10:41:52+00:00	49.0%	86.2%	57.4%	69.7%	66.6%
2026-11-10T11:28:12+00:00	49.0%	86.8%	67.2%	69.7%	66.6%
2026-11-10T12:13:31+00:00	49.0%	86.8%	67.2%	69.7%	66.6%
2026-11-10T12:58:41+00:00	49.0%	86.8%	67.2%	69.7%	66.6%
2026-11-10T13:43:49+00:00	50.0%	86.8%	67.2%	69.7%	66.6%
2026-11-10T14:35:52+00:00	50.0%	86.8%	67.2%	69.7%	66.6%
2026-11-10T15:23:09+00:00	50.0%	86.8%	67.2%	69.7%	66.6%
2026-11-10T16:08:25+00:00	50.0%	87.3%	67.2%	69.7%	66.6%
2026-11-10T16:53:33+00:00	50.0%	87.3%	65.1%	69.7%	66.6%
2026-11-10T17:38:42+00:00	50.0%	87.3%	65.1%	69.7%	66.6%
2026-11-10T18:23:48+00:00	50.0%	87.3%	65.1%	69.7%	66.6%
2026-11-10T19:08:56+00:00	50.0%	87.3%	65.1%	69.7%	66.6%
2026-11-10T19:54:18+00:00	48.1%	87.3%	65.1%	69.7%	60.9%
2026-11-10T20:39:32+00:00	48.1%	87.3%	65.1%	69.7%	60.9%
2026-11-10T21:24:41+00:00	48.1%	87.3%	65.1%	69.7%	60.9%
2026-11-10T22:10:05+00:00	48.1%	87.3%	65.1%	69.7%	60.9%
2026-11-10T22:55:21+00:00	48.1%	87.3%	57.1%	25.8%	60.9%
2026-11-10T23:40:30+00:00	48.1%	87.3%	57.1%	25.8%	60.9%
2026-11-11T00:25:38+00:00	48.1%	87.3%	57.1%	25.8%	60.9%
2026-11-11T01:10:53+00:00	48.1%	87.3%	57.1%	25.8%	60.9%
2026-11-11T01:56:03+00:00	60.4%	87.3%	57.1%	25.8%	60.9%
2026-11-11T02:41:17+00:00	60.4%	87.3%	57.1%	25.8%	60.9%
2026-11-11T03:26:29+00:00	60.4%	87.3%	57.1%	25.8%	60.9%
2026-11-11T16:30:03+00:00	47.0%	83.0%	59.4%	15.9%	37.7%
2026-11-11T17:15:35+00:00	47.0%	83.0%	55.1%	15.9%	37.7%
2026-11-11T18:00:53+00:00	47.0%	83.0%	55.1%	15.9%	37.7%
2026-11-11T18:46:18+00:00	47.0%	83.0%	55.1%	15.9%	37.7%
2026-11-11T19:31:34+00:00	45.0%	83.0%	55.1%	15.9%	24.8%
2026-11-11T20:16:48+00:00	45.0%	83.0%	55.1%	15.9%	24.8%
2026-11-11T21:02:03+00:00	45.0%	83.0%	55.1%	15.9%	24.8%
2026-11-11T21:47:12+00:00	45.0%	83.0%	55.1%	15.9%	24.8%
2026-11-11T22:32:22+00:00	45.0%	83.0%	55.1%	15.9%	24.8%
2026-11-11T23:17:30+00:00	45.0%	83.0%	58.9%	15.9%	24.8%
2026-11-12T00:02:44+00:00	45.0%	83.0%	58.9%	15.9%	24.8%
2026-11-12T00:48:13+00:00	45.0%	83.0%	58.9%	15.9%	24.8%
2026-11-12T01:33:23+00:00	50.0%	83.5%	58.9%	15.9%	24.8%
2026-11-12T02:18:35+00:00	50.0%	83.0%	58.9%	15.9%	24.8%
2026-11-12T03:03:48+00:00	50.0%	83.0%	58.9%	15.9%	24.8%
2026-11-12T03:49:12+00:00	50.0%	83.0%	58.9%	15.9%	24.8%
2026-11-12T04:35:52+00:00	50.0%	83.0%	58.9%	15.9%	24.8%
2026-11-12T05:21:18+00:00	50.0%	83.0%	66.3%	15.9%	24.8%
2026-11-12T06:06:25+00:00	50.0%	83.0%	66.3%	15.9%	24.8%
2026-11-12T06:51:32+00:00	50.0%	82.9%	66.3%	15.9%	24.8%
2026-11-12T07:36:53+00:00	50.0%	82.9%	66.3%	15.9%	9.0%
2026-11-12T08:22:02+00:00	50.0%	82.9%	66.3%	15.9%	9.0%
2026-11-12T09:07:16+00:00	50.0%	82.9%	66.3%	15.9%	9.0%
2026-11-12T09:52:25+00:00	50.0%	82.9%	66.3%	15.9%	9.0%
2026-11-12T10:40:16+00:00	50.0%	82.9%	66.3%	12.9%	9.0%
2026-11-12T11:26:22+00:00	50.0%	91.1%	60.9%	12.9%	9.0%
2026-11-12T12:11:45+00:00	50.0%	91.1%	60.9%	12.9%	9.0%
2026-11-12T12:56:54+00:00	50.0%	91.1%	60.9%	12.9%	9.0%
2026-11-12T13:42:04+00:00	50.0%	91.1%	60.9%	12.9%	9.0%
2026-11-12T14:34:42+00:00	50.0%	91.2%	60.9%	12.9%	8.9%
2026-11-12T15:19:55+00:00	50.0%	91.2%	60.9%	12.9%	8.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	91%	70.4°F	3.6°F	2026-11-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	61%	66.3°F	2.9°F	2026-11-12 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.2°F	2026-11-12 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	65.5°F	3.8°F	2026-11-12 06:00	Pending
National Blend	28%	64.0°F	2.6°F	2026-11-12 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	61.3°F	3.7°F	2026-11-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	9%	60.8°F	3.5°F	2026-11-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261113-TMAX-GE66
Opened Nov 07 · 03:38 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 66°F · Fri Nov 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗