KSFO / Fri Nov 13 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

San Francisco, CAHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST41%Nov 12 · 15:19 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

91%

61%

50%

13%

Consensus

41%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 50.1¢Risks 50.05u

ICONNO 49.9¢Risks 49.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +49.95u · ICON −49.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-11-13T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-29T12:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-29T18:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-30T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-30T06:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-30T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-30T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-31T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-31T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-31T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-31T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-11-01T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-11-01T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-11-01T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-11-01T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-11-02T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-11-02T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-11-02T12:00:00+00:00	38.9%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-11-02T18:00:00+00:00	28.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-11-03T00:00:00+00:00	38.1%	—	—	—	—	57.1%
2026-11-03T06:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-11-03T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	50.6%
2026-11-03T18:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-11-04T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	41.3%
2026-11-04T06:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-11-04T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	44.0%
2026-11-04T18:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-11-05T00:00:00+00:00	51.3%	—	64.7%	—	—	53.1%
2026-11-05T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	22.6%	—	—	—
2026-11-05T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	—	43.5%	—	—	47.4%
2026-11-05T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	38.2%	—	—	—
2026-11-06T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	34.8%	7.7%	—	23.3%	54.7%
2026-11-06T06:00:00+00:00	21.3%	—	68.6%	—	—	—
2026-11-06T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	29.8%	28.1%	20.9%	—	54.2%
2026-11-06T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	87.5%	—	—	—
2026-11-07T00:00:00+00:00	26.0%	67.7%	86.1%	26.0%	—	58.7%
2026-11-07T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	90.5%	—	—	—
2026-11-07T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	76.6%	95.6%	79.5%	—	50.8%
2026-11-07T18:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	89.1%	—	—	40.0%
2026-11-08T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	95.7%	89.2%	55.6%	—	64.1%
2026-11-08T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	94.0%	—	—	50.0%
2026-11-08T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	65.5%	96.6%	50.8%	—	49.2%
2026-11-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.6%	25.3%	94.4%	—	—	—
2026-11-09T00:00:00+00:00	17.8%	69.3%	83.3%	31.4%	—	43.9%
2026-11-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	78.5%	93.5%	—	—	46.4%
2026-11-09T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	90.6%	47.2%	20.3%	—	35.6%
2026-11-09T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	62.1%	23.8%	—	—	34.3%
2026-11-10T00:00:00+00:00	15.3%	57.7%	13.1%	19.0%	—	44.2%
2026-11-10T06:00:00+00:00	15.2%	60.9%	35.3%	—	—	35.3%
2026-11-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.8%	52.1%	36.9%	17.0%	—	25.9%
2026-11-10T18:00:00+00:00	22.0%	46.8%	31.6%	—	—	31.6%
2026-11-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	39.2%	16.9%	16.2%	—	18.3%
2026-11-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.7%	21.4%	19.0%	4.0%	—	17.5%
2026-11-11T12:00:00+00:00	9.4%	25.1%	18.3%	6.1%	—	16.0%
2026-11-11T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	21.6%	19.9%	9.2%	—	13.2%
2026-11-12T00:00:00+00:00	10.6%	13.0%	4.9%	11.8%	12.4%	11.8%
2026-11-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	12.8%	5.3%	9.8%	—	10.9%
2026-11-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.4%	14.1%	4.6%	7.9%	12.7%	10.7%
2026-11-12T18:00:00+00:00	7.1%	11.1%	4.7%	10.4%	—	9.8%
2026-11-13T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	13.8%	5.9%	7.3%	22.2%	8.3%
2026-11-13T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	22.4%	7.5%	9.2%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	91%	70.4°F	3.6°F	2026-11-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	61%	66.3°F	2.9°F	2026-11-12 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	66.0°F	3.2°F	2026-11-12 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	65.5°F	3.8°F	2026-11-12 06:00	Pending
National Blend	28%	64.0°F	2.6°F	2026-11-12 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	13%	61.3°F	3.7°F	2026-11-12 00:00	Pending
ICON	9%	60.8°F	3.5°F	2026-11-12 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSFO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSFO-20261113-TMAX-GE66
Opened Nov 07 · 03:38 UTC

Original listing: San Francisco high ≥ 66°F · Fri Nov 13

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗