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KSLC / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 63°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 10 · 03:31 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
90%
ICON
66%
HRES
65%
EPS
53%
WN2
12%
Consensus
56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 50.6¢Risks 50.55u
VS
WN2NO 49.4¢Risks 49.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +49.45u · WN2 −49.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-10-09T11:37:53+00:00AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-10-09T12:23:21+00:00AIFS Single: 14.5% · 2026-10-09T13:08:28+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-09T13:53:35+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-09T14:42:10+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-09T15:27:59+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-09T16:13:22+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-09T16:58:29+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-09T17:43:36+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-09T18:28:41+00:00AIFS Single: 41.5% · 2026-10-09T19:13:46+00:00AIFS Single: 82.0% · 2026-10-09T19:58:57+00:00AIFS Single: 82.0% · 2026-10-09T20:44:05+00:00AIFS Single: 82.0% · 2026-10-09T21:29:30+00:00AIFS Single: 82.0% · 2026-10-09T22:14:39+00:00AIFS Single: 82.0% · 2026-10-09T22:59:45+00:00AIFS Single: 82.0% · 2026-10-09T23:44:51+00:00AIFS Single: 82.0% · 2026-10-10T00:30:05+00:00AIFS Single: 82.0% · 2026-10-10T01:15:25+00:00AIFS Single: 89.6% · 2026-10-10T02:00:51+00:00AIFS Single: 89.6% · 2026-10-10T02:46:17+00:00AIFS Single: 89.6% · 2026-10-10T03:31:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 42.9% · 2026-10-09T11:37:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.3% · 2026-10-09T12:23:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.3% · 2026-10-09T13:08:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.3% · 2026-10-09T13:53:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.3% · 2026-10-09T14:42:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.3% · 2026-10-09T15:27:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.3% · 2026-10-09T16:13:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.3% · 2026-10-09T16:58:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.3% · 2026-10-09T17:43:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.3% · 2026-10-09T18:28:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.3% · 2026-10-09T19:13:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.3% · 2026-10-09T19:58:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.3% · 2026-10-09T20:44:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.3% · 2026-10-09T21:29:30+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.3% · 2026-10-09T22:14:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.3% · 2026-10-09T22:59:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.3% · 2026-10-09T23:44:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.3% · 2026-10-10T00:30:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.3% · 2026-10-10T01:15:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.3% · 2026-10-10T02:00:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.3% · 2026-10-10T02:46:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 53.3% · 2026-10-10T03:31:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.1% · 2026-10-09T11:37:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.1% · 2026-10-09T12:23:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.1% · 2026-10-09T13:08:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.1% · 2026-10-09T13:53:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.1% · 2026-10-09T14:42:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.1% · 2026-10-09T15:27:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.1% · 2026-10-09T16:13:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 6.1% · 2026-10-09T16:58:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.5% · 2026-10-09T17:43:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.5% · 2026-10-09T18:28:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.5% · 2026-10-09T19:13:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.5% · 2026-10-09T19:58:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.5% · 2026-10-09T20:44:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.5% · 2026-10-09T21:29:30+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.5% · 2026-10-09T22:14:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.5% · 2026-10-09T22:59:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.5% · 2026-10-09T23:44:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.5% · 2026-10-10T00:30:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.5% · 2026-10-10T01:15:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.5% · 2026-10-10T02:00:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.5% · 2026-10-10T02:46:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.5% · 2026-10-10T03:31:24+00:00IFS HRES: 55.0% · 2026-10-09T11:37:53+00:00IFS HRES: 55.0% · 2026-10-09T12:23:21+00:00IFS HRES: 55.0% · 2026-10-09T13:08:28+00:00IFS HRES: 55.0% · 2026-10-09T13:53:35+00:00IFS HRES: 55.0% · 2026-10-09T14:42:10+00:00IFS HRES: 55.0% · 2026-10-09T15:27:59+00:00IFS HRES: 55.0% · 2026-10-09T16:13:22+00:00IFS HRES: 55.0% · 2026-10-09T16:58:29+00:00IFS HRES: 55.0% · 2026-10-09T17:43:36+00:00IFS HRES: 55.0% · 2026-10-09T18:28:41+00:00IFS HRES: 55.0% · 2026-10-09T19:13:46+00:00IFS HRES: 65.3% · 2026-10-09T19:58:57+00:00IFS HRES: 65.3% · 2026-10-09T20:44:05+00:00IFS HRES: 65.3% · 2026-10-09T21:29:30+00:00IFS HRES: 65.3% · 2026-10-09T22:14:39+00:00IFS HRES: 65.3% · 2026-10-09T22:59:45+00:00IFS HRES: 65.3% · 2026-10-09T23:44:51+00:00IFS HRES: 65.3% · 2026-10-10T00:30:05+00:00IFS HRES: 65.3% · 2026-10-10T01:15:25+00:00IFS HRES: 65.3% · 2026-10-10T02:00:51+00:00IFS HRES: 65.3% · 2026-10-10T02:46:17+00:00IFS HRES: 65.3% · 2026-10-10T03:31:24+00:00ICON: 15.6% · 2026-10-09T11:37:53+00:00ICON: 15.6% · 2026-10-09T12:23:21+00:00ICON: 15.6% · 2026-10-09T13:08:28+00:00ICON: 15.6% · 2026-10-09T13:53:35+00:00ICON: 15.7% · 2026-10-09T14:42:10+00:00ICON: 15.7% · 2026-10-09T15:27:59+00:00ICON: 15.7% · 2026-10-09T16:13:22+00:00ICON: 15.7% · 2026-10-09T16:58:29+00:00ICON: 15.7% · 2026-10-09T17:43:36+00:00ICON: 15.7% · 2026-10-09T18:28:41+00:00ICON: 15.7% · 2026-10-09T19:13:46+00:00ICON: 66.2% · 2026-10-09T19:58:57+00:00ICON: 66.2% · 2026-10-09T20:44:05+00:00ICON: 66.2% · 2026-10-09T21:29:30+00:00ICON: 66.2% · 2026-10-09T22:14:39+00:00ICON: 66.2% · 2026-10-09T22:59:45+00:00ICON: 66.2% · 2026-10-09T23:44:51+00:00ICON: 66.2% · 2026-10-10T00:30:05+00:00ICON: 66.2% · 2026-10-10T01:15:25+00:00ICON: 66.2% · 2026-10-10T02:00:51+00:00ICON: 66.2% · 2026-10-10T02:46:17+00:00ICON: 66.2% · 2026-10-10T03:31:24+00:0010-09 11:3710-09 19:5810-10 03:31
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-10T03:31:24+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-09T11:37:53+00:0014.5%42.9%6.1%55.0%15.6%
2026-10-09T12:23:21+00:0014.5%53.3%6.1%55.0%15.6%
2026-10-09T13:08:28+00:0014.5%53.3%6.1%55.0%15.6%
2026-10-09T13:53:35+00:0041.5%53.3%6.1%55.0%15.6%
2026-10-09T14:42:10+00:0041.5%53.3%6.1%55.0%15.7%
2026-10-09T15:27:59+00:0041.5%53.3%6.1%55.0%15.7%
2026-10-09T16:13:22+00:0041.5%53.3%6.1%55.0%15.7%
2026-10-09T16:58:29+00:0041.5%53.3%6.1%55.0%15.7%
2026-10-09T17:43:36+00:0041.5%53.3%11.5%55.0%15.7%
2026-10-09T18:28:41+00:0041.5%53.3%11.5%55.0%15.7%
2026-10-09T19:13:46+00:0041.5%53.3%11.5%55.0%15.7%
2026-10-09T19:58:57+00:0082.0%53.3%11.5%65.3%66.2%
2026-10-09T20:44:05+00:0082.0%53.3%11.5%65.3%66.2%
2026-10-09T21:29:30+00:0082.0%53.3%11.5%65.3%66.2%
2026-10-09T22:14:39+00:0082.0%53.3%11.5%65.3%66.2%
2026-10-09T22:59:45+00:0082.0%53.3%11.5%65.3%66.2%
2026-10-09T23:44:51+00:0082.0%53.3%11.5%65.3%66.2%
2026-10-10T00:30:05+00:0082.0%53.3%11.5%65.3%66.2%
2026-10-10T01:15:25+00:0082.0%53.3%11.5%65.3%66.2%
2026-10-10T02:00:51+00:0089.6%53.3%11.5%65.3%66.2%
2026-10-10T02:46:17+00:0089.6%53.3%11.5%65.3%66.2%
2026-10-10T03:31:24+00:0089.6%53.3%11.5%65.3%66.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single90%69.5°F5.6°F2026-10-09 18:000.0108
ICON66%66.6°F9.8°F2026-10-09 12:000.1142
IFS HRES65%65.0°F6.3°F2026-10-09 12:000.1204
National Blend54%63.0°F5.5°F2026-10-09 06:000.2153
IFS Ensemble53%63.0°F6.1°F2026-10-09 00:000.2181
WeatherNext 212%56.6°F4.9°F2026-10-09 06:000.7832

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261016-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 09 · 11:37 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 63°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗