KSLC / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 63°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 10 · 03:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

66%

65%

53%

12%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 50.6¢Risks 50.55u

WN2NO 49.4¢Risks 49.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +49.45u · WN2 −49.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	89.2%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	89.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	63.1%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	27.4%	—	—	—	—	68.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	43.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	—	—	—	54.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	71.4%	—	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	61.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.1%	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	22.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	5.9%	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	67.0%	—	—	42.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	23.7%	—	8.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	0.8%	45.3%	—	—	43.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	68.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	47.9%	62.4%	0.2%	—	46.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	69.0%	6.2%	43.4%	72.8%	—	57.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	58.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	71.1%	36.5%	75.5%	—	50.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	74.1%	—	68.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	70.5%	1.0%	73.9%	82.1%	—	61.0%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	74.4%	—	81.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	54.2%	88.0%	92.9%	67.0%	—	55.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	54.3%	29.6%	88.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	84.9%	85.9%	62.9%	—	57.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	78.5%	82.2%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	67.0%	63.6%	82.8%	46.3%	—	61.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	62.1%	81.7%	—	—	60.3%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	68.7%	44.2%	70.4%	52.9%	—	62.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	70.1%	52.0%	80.3%	—	—	64.7%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	71.5%	54.1%	72.4%	64.1%	—	67.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	73.0%	53.2%	81.7%	—	—	63.5%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	70.8%	51.1%	91.0%	57.6%	—	60.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	72.4%	57.8%	94.3%	0.0%	—	63.3%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	72.0%	54.6%	94.3%	65.9%	32.0%	64.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	59.5%	94.8%	67.5%	—	66.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	74.4%	61.1%	94.1%	68.0%	38.9%	66.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	73.1%	62.7%	94.7%	67.5%	—	62.7%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	76.0%	63.2%	93.5%	65.7%	43.3%	64.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	78.9%	67.5%	94.2%	62.3%	—	67.5%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	76.6%	82.8%	90.5%	64.2%	55.8%	70.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	78.7%	79.8%	90.1%	60.5%	—	72.8%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	84.8%	78.6%	89.0%	68.3%	60.9%	76.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	74.6%	81.9%	92.7%	75.9%	—	78.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	90%	69.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-09 18:00	0.0108
ICON	66%	66.6°F	9.8°F	2026-10-09 12:00	0.1142
IFS HRES	65%	65.0°F	6.3°F	2026-10-09 12:00	0.1204
National Blend	54%	63.0°F	5.5°F	2026-10-09 06:00	0.2153
IFS Ensemble	53%	63.0°F	6.1°F	2026-10-09 00:00	0.2181
WeatherNext 2	12%	56.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-09 06:00	0.7832

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261016-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 09 · 11:37 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 63°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗