KSLC / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

32%

16%

13%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 33.0¢Risks 33.05u

ICONNO 67.0¢Risks 66.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +66.95u · ICON −66.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:41+00:00	55.8%	15.9%	12.3%	29.6%	7.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	55.8%	15.9%	12.3%	29.6%	7.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	55.8%	15.9%	12.3%	29.6%	7.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	55.8%	15.9%	9.3%	29.6%	7.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	55.8%	15.9%	9.3%	29.6%	7.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	55.8%	15.9%	9.3%	29.6%	7.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00	55.8%	15.9%	9.3%	32.2%	8.3%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	55.8%	15.9%	9.3%	32.2%	8.3%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	55.8%	15.9%	9.3%	32.2%	8.3%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	55.8%	15.9%	9.3%	32.2%	8.3%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	55.8%	15.9%	9.3%	32.2%	8.3%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	55.8%	15.9%	12.9%	32.2%	8.3%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	55.8%	15.9%	12.9%	32.2%	8.3%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	55.8%	15.9%	12.9%	32.2%	8.3%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	57.8%	15.9%	12.9%	32.2%	8.3%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	57.8%	15.9%	12.9%	32.2%	8.3%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	57.8%	15.9%	12.9%	32.2%	8.3%
2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00	57.8%	15.9%	12.9%	32.2%	8.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	58%	68.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.3341
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.3114
National Blend	39%	67.0°F	1.7°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1490
IFS HRES	32%	65.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.1037
IFS Ensemble	16%	63.7°F	3.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0253
WeatherNext 2	13%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0166
ICON	8%	62.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0069

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261016-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗