KSLC / Fri Oct 16 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 68°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 04:02 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

58%

32%

16%

13%

Consensus

26%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 33.0¢Risks 33.05u

ICONNO 67.0¢Risks 66.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +66.95u · ICON −66.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-01T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	3.7%
2026-10-01T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	71.7%
2026-10-02T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	72.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	45.1%	—	—	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	16.3%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.9%	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	35.4%	—	—	15.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	0.1%	16.7%	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.3%	17.5%	28.6%	0.0%	—	16.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	16.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	33.7%	0.7%	14.0%	37.8%	—	23.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	23.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	34.4%	9.7%	39.4%	—	17.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	31.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	32.3%	0.1%	35.9%	46.8%	—	23.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.6%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	17.3%	55.0%	66.2%	27.2%	—	17.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	5.4%	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	47.4%	49.1%	22.1%	—	17.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	36.8%	42.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	23.7%	20.9%	41.8%	10.6%	—	19.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	22.4%	19.0%	38.8%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	8.6%	24.7%	12.6%	—	18.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	11.4%	34.4%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	23.5%	11.8%	24.3%	17.6%	—	19.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	10.6%	33.5%	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.6%	9.0%	48.9%	11.9%	—	13.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.6%	11.2%	56.7%	0.0%	—	14.1%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	19.1%	9.0%	54.6%	14.7%	2.7%	14.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	19.9%	10.2%	54.8%	14.5%	—	13.9%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.2%	10.0%	50.0%	13.7%	3.3%	13.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	15.8%	9.8%	50.0%	12.2%	—	9.8%
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	8.9%	43.3%	10.1%	3.2%	9.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	17.3%	9.8%	43.1%	7.6%	—	9.8%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	13.8%	19.1%	30.5%	7.3%	4.7%	10.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	13.6%	14.4%	27.2%	5.1%	—	9.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	17.1%	11.7%	22.6%	6.6%	4.4%	10.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	12.3%	26.7%	8.6%	—	9.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	58%	68.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.3341
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-14 14:00	0.3114
National Blend	39%	67.0°F	1.7°F	2026-10-14 06:00	0.1490
IFS HRES	32%	65.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.1037
IFS Ensemble	16%	63.7°F	3.8°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0253
WeatherNext 2	13%	64.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0166
ICON	8%	62.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0069

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261016-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 68°F · Fri Oct 16

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗