KSLC / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

76%

71%

58%

46%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 67.2¢Risks 67.15u

ICONNO 32.9¢Risks 32.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +32.85u · ICON −32.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-11T15:12:05+00:00	78.1%	57.7%	71.7%	55.5%	74.2%
2026-10-11T15:57:20+00:00	78.1%	57.7%	71.7%	55.5%	74.2%
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	78.1%	57.7%	71.7%	55.5%	74.2%
2026-10-11T17:28:03+00:00	78.1%	57.7%	70.1%	55.5%	74.2%
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	78.1%	57.7%	70.1%	55.5%	74.2%
2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00	78.1%	57.7%	70.1%	55.5%	74.2%
2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00	77.0%	57.7%	70.1%	40.4%	77.2%
2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00	77.0%	57.7%	70.1%	40.4%	77.2%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	77.0%	57.7%	70.1%	40.4%	77.2%
2026-10-11T21:59:01+00:00	77.0%	57.7%	70.1%	40.4%	77.2%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	77.0%	57.7%	70.1%	40.4%	77.2%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00	76.9%	57.7%	51.8%	40.4%	77.1%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00	76.9%	57.7%	51.8%	40.4%	77.1%
2026-10-12T01:00:15+00:00	76.9%	57.7%	51.8%	40.4%	77.1%
2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00	79.7%	57.7%	51.8%	40.4%	77.1%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	79.7%	57.7%	51.8%	40.4%	77.1%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	79.7%	57.7%	51.8%	40.4%	77.1%
2026-10-12T15:27:43+00:00	77.4%	71.7%	65.3%	57.6%	74.6%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	77.4%	68.3%	65.3%	57.6%	74.6%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	77.4%	68.3%	65.3%	57.6%	74.6%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	77.4%	68.3%	54.9%	57.6%	74.6%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	77.4%	68.3%	54.9%	57.6%	74.6%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	77.4%	68.3%	54.9%	57.6%	74.6%
2026-10-12T19:58:35+00:00	79.8%	68.3%	54.9%	76.7%	58.7%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	79.8%	68.3%	54.9%	76.7%	58.7%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	79.8%	68.3%	54.9%	76.7%	58.7%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	79.8%	68.3%	54.9%	76.7%	58.7%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	79.8%	68.3%	67.0%	76.7%	58.7%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	79.8%	68.3%	67.0%	76.7%	58.7%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	79.8%	68.3%	67.0%	76.7%	58.7%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	79.8%	68.3%	67.0%	76.7%	58.7%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	81.5%	68.3%	67.0%	76.7%	58.7%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	81.5%	68.3%	67.0%	76.7%	58.7%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	81.5%	68.3%	67.0%	76.7%	58.7%
2026-10-15T04:48:05+00:00	87.8%	54.0%	68.3%	57.1%	29.0%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	87.8%	54.0%	70.3%	57.1%	29.0%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	87.8%	54.0%	70.3%	57.1%	29.0%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	87.8%	54.0%	70.3%	57.1%	29.0%
2026-10-15T07:50:19+00:00	89.0%	54.0%	70.3%	66.1%	27.7%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	89.0%	54.0%	70.3%	66.1%	27.7%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	89.0%	54.0%	70.3%	66.1%	27.7%
2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00	89.0%	54.0%	70.3%	66.1%	27.7%
2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00	89.0%	54.0%	70.3%	66.1%	27.7%
2026-10-15T11:39:32+00:00	89.0%	54.0%	67.4%	66.1%	27.7%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	89.0%	57.9%	67.4%	66.1%	27.7%
2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00	89.0%	57.9%	67.4%	66.1%	27.7%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	87.0%	57.9%	67.4%	66.1%	27.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	87.1%	57.7%	67.4%	66.1%	27.7%
2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00	87.1%	56.9%	67.4%	66.1%	27.7%
2026-10-15T16:20:12+00:00	87.1%	56.9%	67.4%	66.1%	27.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	87.1%	56.9%	62.6%	66.1%	27.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	87.1%	56.9%	62.6%	66.1%	27.7%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	87.1%	56.9%	62.6%	66.1%	27.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	87.1%	56.9%	62.6%	66.1%	27.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	88.1%	56.9%	62.6%	51.0%	32.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	88.1%	56.9%	62.6%	51.0%	32.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	88.1%	56.9%	62.6%	51.0%	32.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	88.1%	56.9%	62.6%	51.0%	32.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	88.1%	56.9%	62.6%	51.0%	32.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	88.1%	56.9%	62.6%	51.0%	32.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	88.1%	56.9%	62.6%	51.0%	32.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	87.6%	56.9%	62.6%	51.0%	32.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	87.6%	56.9%	62.6%	51.0%	32.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	87.6%	56.9%	62.6%	51.0%	32.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	87.6%	56.9%	62.6%	51.0%	32.6%
2026-10-16T04:24:54+00:00	87.6%	56.9%	62.6%	51.0%	32.6%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	87.6%	56.9%	71.9%	51.0%	32.6%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	87.6%	56.9%	71.9%	51.0%	32.6%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	87.6%	56.9%	71.9%	51.0%	32.6%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	87.6%	56.9%	71.9%	51.0%	32.6%
2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00	87.2%	56.9%	71.9%	51.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	87.2%	56.9%	71.9%	51.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	87.2%	56.9%	71.9%	51.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	87.2%	56.9%	71.9%	51.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00	87.2%	56.6%	72.0%	51.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	87.2%	56.6%	72.0%	51.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	87.2%	56.6%	72.0%	51.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00	87.2%	56.6%	72.0%	51.0%	44.4%
2026-10-16T14:19:55+00:00	89.3%	56.6%	72.0%	56.4%	44.4%
2026-10-17T04:42:19+00:00	88.8%	57.7%	51.4%	71.4%	45.5%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	88.8%	57.7%	76.5%	71.4%	45.5%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	88.8%	57.7%	76.5%	71.4%	45.5%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	88.8%	57.7%	76.5%	71.4%	45.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	89%	70.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0125
WeatherNext 2	76%	67.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0552
National Blend	76%	67.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0581
IFS HRES	71%	67.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0818
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1648
IFS Ensemble	58%	66.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1789
ICON	46%	65.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2970

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261017-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 11 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗