KSLC / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 66°F

FINAL OUTCOMEYESOct 17 · 06:58 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

89%

76%

71%

58%

46%

Consensus

73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 67.2¢Risks 67.15u

ICONNO 32.9¢Risks 32.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +32.85u · ICON −32.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	84.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	46.3%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	34.5%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	72.6%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	66.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	39.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	0.1%	—	—	31.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	1.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	43.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	29.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	61.8%	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	52.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	75.4%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	0.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	50.7%	—	—	53.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	63.5%	—	70.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	61.1%	63.1%	47.9%	1.1%	—	47.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	72.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	—	80.1%	89.0%	—	54.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	84.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	62.7%	87.5%	69.7%	—	43.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	84.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	60.3%	77.0%	44.4%	—	51.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	77.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	53.3%	39.3%	76.8%	36.1%	—	55.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	7.8%	77.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	18.4%	77.9%	67.0%	—	52.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	52.7%	26.4%	77.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	56.4%	31.4%	83.4%	40.9%	—	52.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	27.6%	86.3%	—	—	55.7%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	63.4%	22.5%	87.4%	45.1%	—	51.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	66.5%	27.4%	89.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	62.2%	22.7%	88.7%	46.9%	—	53.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	63.5%	28.8%	89.4%	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	64.9%	31.1%	89.6%	40.3%	0.0%	57.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	36.7%	92.5%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	64.8%	35.2%	87.9%	32.0%	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	42.8%	87.4%	31.4%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	62.3%	59.9%	87.6%	47.5%	32.0%	58.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	66.3%	60.2%	87.2%	47.4%	—	61.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	66.9%	61.9%	89.9%	47.3%	36.8%	65.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	66.2%	74.7%	93.8%	59.7%	—	72.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	85.4%	92.7%	52.9%	33.1%	81.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	67.5%	84.7%	94.4%	50.0%	—	78.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	75.0%	94.3%	53.2%	33.1%	79.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	64.5%	85.9%	93.7%	46.7%	—	78.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	89%	70.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0125
WeatherNext 2	76%	67.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-16 18:00	0.0552
National Blend	76%	67.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 00:00	0.0581
IFS HRES	71%	67.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.0818
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-17 03:00	0.1648
IFS Ensemble	58%	66.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-16 00:00	0.1789
ICON	46%	65.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-16 12:00	0.2970

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261017-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 11 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 66°F · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗