KSLC / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 76°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 05:01 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

13%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 8.9¢Risks 4.45u

EPSNO 91.1¢Risks 45.55u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.55u · EPS −45.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-10T22:27:56+00:00	20.4%	5.9%	5.2%	3.4%	35.7%
2026-10-10T23:13:33+00:00	20.4%	5.9%	6.9%	3.4%	35.7%
2026-10-10T23:58:40+00:00	20.4%	5.9%	6.9%	3.4%	35.7%
2026-10-11T00:43:47+00:00	20.4%	5.9%	6.9%	3.4%	35.7%
2026-10-11T01:29:03+00:00	23.1%	5.9%	6.9%	3.4%	35.7%
2026-10-11T02:14:14+00:00	23.1%	5.9%	6.9%	3.4%	35.7%
2026-10-11T02:59:22+00:00	23.1%	5.9%	6.9%	3.4%	35.7%
2026-10-11T03:45:20+00:00	23.1%	5.9%	6.9%	3.4%	35.7%
2026-10-11T04:30:53+00:00	23.1%	5.9%	6.9%	3.4%	35.7%
2026-10-11T05:16:07+00:00	23.1%	5.9%	8.4%	3.4%	35.7%
2026-10-11T06:01:17+00:00	23.1%	5.9%	8.4%	3.4%	35.7%
2026-10-11T06:46:27+00:00	23.1%	5.9%	8.4%	3.4%	35.7%
2026-10-11T07:32:32+00:00	18.2%	5.9%	8.4%	8.3%	35.7%
2026-10-11T08:18:04+00:00	18.2%	5.9%	8.4%	8.3%	35.7%
2026-10-11T09:03:12+00:00	18.2%	5.9%	8.4%	8.3%	35.7%
2026-10-11T09:48:17+00:00	18.2%	5.9%	8.4%	8.3%	35.7%
2026-10-11T10:34:14+00:00	18.2%	5.9%	8.4%	8.3%	35.7%
2026-10-11T11:20:12+00:00	18.2%	1.3%	5.1%	8.3%	35.7%
2026-10-11T12:05:24+00:00	18.2%	1.3%	5.1%	8.3%	35.7%
2026-10-11T12:50:29+00:00	18.2%	1.3%	5.1%	8.3%	35.7%
2026-10-11T13:35:54+00:00	13.6%	1.3%	5.1%	8.3%	35.7%
2026-10-11T14:26:15+00:00	13.2%	1.4%	5.2%	8.3%	35.7%
2026-10-11T15:12:05+00:00	13.2%	1.3%	5.2%	8.3%	35.7%
2026-10-11T15:57:20+00:00	13.2%	1.3%	5.2%	8.3%	35.7%
2026-10-11T16:42:27+00:00	13.2%	1.3%	5.2%	8.3%	35.7%
2026-10-11T17:28:03+00:00	13.2%	1.3%	4.7%	8.3%	35.7%
2026-10-11T18:13:13+00:00	13.2%	1.3%	4.7%	8.3%	35.7%
2026-10-11T18:58:20+00:00	13.2%	1.3%	4.7%	8.3%	35.7%
2026-10-11T19:43:34+00:00	12.4%	1.3%	4.7%	3.9%	24.6%
2026-10-11T20:28:41+00:00	12.4%	1.3%	4.7%	3.9%	24.6%
2026-10-11T21:13:55+00:00	12.4%	1.3%	4.7%	3.9%	24.6%
2026-10-11T21:59:01+00:00	12.4%	1.3%	4.7%	3.9%	24.6%
2026-10-11T22:44:16+00:00	12.4%	1.3%	4.7%	3.9%	24.6%
2026-10-11T23:29:37+00:00	12.5%	1.3%	1.6%	3.9%	24.7%
2026-10-12T00:14:46+00:00	12.5%	1.3%	1.6%	3.9%	24.7%
2026-10-12T01:00:15+00:00	12.5%	1.3%	1.6%	3.9%	24.7%
2026-10-12T01:45:24+00:00	14.5%	1.3%	1.6%	3.9%	24.7%
2026-10-12T02:30:31+00:00	14.5%	1.3%	1.6%	3.9%	24.7%
2026-10-12T03:15:39+00:00	14.5%	1.3%	1.6%	3.9%	24.7%
2026-10-12T04:01:53+00:00	14.5%	1.3%	1.6%	3.9%	24.7%
2026-10-12T04:47:16+00:00	14.5%	1.3%	1.6%	3.9%	24.7%
2026-10-12T05:32:23+00:00	14.5%	1.3%	3.4%	3.9%	24.7%
2026-10-12T06:17:30+00:00	14.5%	1.3%	3.4%	3.9%	24.7%
2026-10-12T07:02:36+00:00	14.5%	1.3%	3.4%	3.9%	24.7%
2026-10-12T07:48:55+00:00	7.4%	1.3%	3.4%	6.1%	15.0%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	7.4%	1.3%	3.4%	6.1%	15.0%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	7.4%	1.3%	3.4%	6.1%	15.0%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	7.4%	1.3%	3.4%	6.1%	15.0%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	7.4%	1.3%	3.4%	6.1%	15.0%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	7.4%	2.7%	1.9%	6.1%	15.0%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	7.4%	2.7%	1.9%	6.1%	15.0%
2026-10-12T13:51:09+00:00	9.9%	2.7%	1.9%	6.1%	15.0%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	10.0%	2.7%	2.0%	6.1%	15.0%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	11.5%	2.1%	2.2%	15.7%	6.9%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	11.5%	2.1%	2.2%	15.7%	6.9%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	11.5%	2.1%	2.2%	15.7%	6.9%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	11.5%	2.1%	2.2%	15.7%	6.9%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	12.7%	2.1%	2.2%	15.7%	6.9%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	12.7%	2.1%	2.2%	15.7%	6.9%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	12.7%	2.1%	2.2%	15.7%	6.9%
2026-10-13T04:16:19+00:00	12.7%	2.1%	2.2%	15.7%	6.9%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	12.7%	2.1%	2.2%	15.7%	6.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	16%	69.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0246
AIFS Single	13%	69.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0161
ICON	7%	66.8°F	5.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0048
NWS forecast	5%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.0021
WeatherNext 2	2%	67.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0005
IFS Ensemble	2%	67.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0004
National Blend	<1%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261017-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗