KSLC / Sat Oct 17 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 76°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 05:01 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

16%

13%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 8.9¢Risks 4.45u

EPSNO 91.1¢Risks 45.55u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.55u · EPS −45.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-02T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-02T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	37.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-03T00:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	13.1%
2026-10-03T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	5.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	13.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	17.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	10.1%	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	6.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	17.2%	—	—	5.7%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	4.7%	—	—	5.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	7.7%	3.5%	0.0%	—	3.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	—	11.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	16.1%	27.2%	—	4.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.9%	5.6%	22.2%	8.1%	—	1.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	4.1%	10.4%	1.6%	—	2.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	9.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	0.9%	8.7%	0.7%	—	2.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	0.0%	8.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	0.1%	7.7%	3.9%	—	1.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.2%	6.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	0.3%	9.0%	0.5%	—	1.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	0.1%	10.0%	—	—	1.3%
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.1%	9.8%	0.5%	—	0.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	0.1%	10.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.0%	8.6%	0.4%	—	0.6%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	0.1%	8.0%	—	—	0.4%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	0.1%	7.0%	0.1%	0.0%	0.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.1%	8.3%	0.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.1%	4.0%	0.0%	—	0.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	3.1%	0.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.2%	2.5%	0.1%	0.0%	0.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	1.8%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.1%	1.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	2.5%	0.1%	—	0.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.5%	1.5%	0.0%	0.0%	0.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.3%	1.4%	0.0%	—	0.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.9%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%	—	0.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	16%	69.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0246
AIFS Single	13%	69.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.0161
ICON	7%	66.8°F	5.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0048
NWS forecast	5%	68.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-13 03:00	0.0021
WeatherNext 2	2%	67.3°F	4.1°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.0005
IFS Ensemble	2%	67.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.0004
National Blend	<1%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.0000

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261017-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 10 · 22:27 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City runs hot-for-here: 76°F+ · Sat Oct 17

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗