KSLC / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

76%

75%

61%

28%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 57.6¢Risks 57.65u

ICONNO 42.4¢Risks 42.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +42.35u · ICON −42.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:48:05+00:00	81.9%	57.7%	66.6%	50.8%	38.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	81.9%	57.7%	66.6%	50.8%	38.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	81.9%	57.7%	66.6%	50.8%	38.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	81.9%	57.7%	66.6%	50.8%	38.6%
2026-10-15T07:50:19+00:00	83.6%	57.7%	66.6%	62.3%	35.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	83.6%	57.7%	66.6%	62.3%	35.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	83.6%	57.7%	66.6%	62.3%	35.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00	83.6%	57.7%	66.6%	62.3%	35.3%
2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00	83.6%	57.7%	66.6%	62.3%	35.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:32+00:00	83.6%	57.7%	78.0%	62.3%	35.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	83.6%	61.0%	78.0%	62.3%	35.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00	83.6%	61.0%	78.0%	62.3%	35.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	81.8%	61.0%	78.0%	62.3%	35.3%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	81.9%	60.9%	78.0%	62.3%	35.3%
2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00	81.9%	58.9%	78.0%	62.3%	35.3%
2026-10-15T16:20:12+00:00	81.9%	58.9%	78.0%	62.3%	35.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	81.9%	58.9%	65.0%	62.3%	35.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	81.9%	58.9%	65.0%	62.3%	35.3%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	81.9%	58.9%	65.0%	62.3%	35.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	81.9%	58.9%	65.0%	62.3%	35.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	84.2%	58.9%	65.0%	77.0%	45.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	84.2%	58.9%	65.0%	77.0%	45.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	84.2%	58.9%	65.0%	77.0%	45.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	84.2%	58.9%	65.0%	77.0%	45.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	84.2%	58.9%	63.9%	77.0%	45.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	84.2%	58.9%	63.9%	77.0%	45.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	84.2%	58.9%	63.9%	77.0%	45.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	82.5%	58.9%	63.9%	77.0%	45.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	82.5%	58.9%	63.9%	77.0%	45.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	82.5%	58.9%	63.9%	77.0%	45.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	82.5%	58.9%	63.9%	77.0%	45.0%
2026-10-16T04:24:54+00:00	82.5%	58.9%	63.9%	77.0%	45.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	82.5%	58.9%	77.1%	77.0%	45.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	82.5%	58.9%	77.1%	77.0%	45.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	82.5%	58.9%	77.1%	77.0%	45.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	82.5%	58.9%	77.1%	77.0%	45.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00	84.3%	58.9%	77.1%	77.0%	46.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	84.3%	58.9%	77.1%	77.0%	46.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	84.3%	58.9%	77.1%	77.0%	46.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	84.3%	58.9%	77.1%	77.0%	46.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00	84.3%	61.1%	79.9%	77.0%	46.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	84.3%	61.1%	79.9%	77.0%	46.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	84.3%	61.1%	79.9%	77.0%	46.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00	84.3%	61.1%	79.9%	77.0%	46.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:55+00:00	84.9%	61.0%	79.9%	66.1%	46.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:44+00:00	84.9%	63.0%	79.9%	66.1%	46.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	84.9%	63.0%	79.9%	66.1%	46.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	84.9%	63.0%	79.9%	66.1%	46.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	84.9%	63.0%	71.9%	66.1%	46.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	84.9%	63.0%	71.9%	66.1%	46.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	84.9%	63.0%	71.9%	66.1%	46.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00	84.9%	63.0%	71.9%	66.1%	50.0%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	84.9%	63.0%	71.9%	66.1%	50.0%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	84.9%	63.0%	71.9%	66.1%	50.0%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	84.9%	63.0%	71.9%	66.1%	50.0%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	84.9%	63.0%	71.9%	59.6%	50.0%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	84.9%	63.0%	51.3%	59.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	84.9%	63.0%	51.3%	59.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	84.9%	63.0%	51.3%	59.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	82.5%	63.0%	51.3%	59.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	82.5%	63.0%	51.3%	59.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	82.5%	63.0%	51.3%	59.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	82.5%	63.0%	51.3%	59.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T04:42:19+00:00	82.5%	63.0%	51.3%	59.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	82.5%	63.0%	75.1%	59.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	82.5%	63.0%	75.1%	59.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	82.5%	63.0%	75.1%	59.6%	50.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:58+00:00	81.9%	63.0%	75.1%	70.5%	52.3%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	81.9%	63.0%	75.1%	70.5%	52.3%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	81.9%	63.0%	75.1%	70.5%	52.3%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	81.9%	63.0%	75.1%	70.5%	52.3%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	81.9%	63.0%	75.1%	70.5%	52.3%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	81.9%	73.3%	79.5%	70.5%	52.3%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	81.9%	73.3%	79.5%	70.5%	52.3%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	81.9%	73.3%	79.5%	70.5%	52.3%
2026-10-17T13:47:56+00:00	81.2%	73.3%	79.5%	70.5%	52.3%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	81.3%	72.9%	79.5%	70.5%	52.3%
2026-10-17T15:25:11+00:00	81.3%	75.7%	79.5%	70.5%	52.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	81.3%	75.7%	79.5%	70.5%	52.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	81.3%	75.7%	79.5%	70.5%	52.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	81.3%	75.7%	51.4%	70.5%	52.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	81.3%	75.7%	51.4%	70.5%	52.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	81.3%	75.7%	51.4%	70.5%	52.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	85.7%	75.7%	51.4%	60.6%	28.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	85.7%	75.7%	51.4%	60.6%	28.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	85.7%	75.7%	51.4%	60.6%	28.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	85.7%	75.7%	51.4%	60.6%	28.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	85.7%	75.7%	51.4%	60.6%	28.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	85.7%	75.6%	50.0%	60.6%	28.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	85.7%	75.6%	50.0%	60.6%	28.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	85.7%	75.6%	50.0%	60.6%	28.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	86.8%	75.6%	50.0%	60.6%	28.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	86.8%	75.6%	50.0%	60.6%	28.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	86.8%	75.6%	50.0%	60.6%	28.5%
2026-10-18T04:14:32+00:00	86.8%	75.6%	50.0%	60.6%	28.5%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	86.8%	75.6%	75.4%	60.6%	28.5%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	86.8%	75.6%	75.4%	60.6%	28.5%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	86.8%	75.6%	75.4%	60.6%	28.5%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	86.8%	75.6%	75.4%	60.6%	28.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	87%	69.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	68.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	67.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	66.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	28%	63.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 04:48 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗