KSLC / Sun Oct 18 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST70%Oct 18 · 07:15 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

87%

76%

75%

61%

28%

Consensus

70%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 57.6¢Risks 57.65u

ICONNO 42.4¢Risks 42.35u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +42.35u · ICON −42.35u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-03T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	1.8%
2026-10-03T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T00:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	62.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	62.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	42.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	—	—	—	44.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	—	—	—	58.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	60.2%	—	5.5%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	81.1%	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	63.2%	—	83.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	67.6%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	63.7%	—	80.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	58.1%	—	87.2%	—	—	59.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	88.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	55.6%	70.8%	87.4%	1.8%	—	54.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	86.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	55.1%	73.4%	76.8%	67.0%	—	62.3%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	77.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	58.3%	76.1%	71.7%	—	59.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	57.8%	—	79.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	26.8%	80.0%	60.3%	—	57.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	82.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	60.7%	24.5%	81.0%	64.7%	—	59.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	63.4%	3.9%	78.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	23.4%	73.8%	43.0%	—	48.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	57.1%	21.5%	83.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.9%	23.7%	81.0%	51.8%	—	42.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	35.2%	86.3%	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	54.9%	29.6%	84.7%	54.9%	—	48.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	52.0%	32.6%	84.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	55.1%	37.8%	84.9%	60.2%	—	51.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	52.1%	45.8%	83.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	55.5%	50.0%	85.1%	61.8%	—	59.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	55.6%	85.2%	0.0%	—	59.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	53.5%	79.3%	79.3%	—	55.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	51.2%	54.8%	86.8%	69.6%	—	54.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	68.0%	89.4%	83.4%	27.6%	66.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	47.4%	72.0%	92.3%	75.2%	—	48.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	56.7%	40.7%	89.9%	71.6%	16.5%	52.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	59.7%	76.8%	86.1%	68.8%	—	61.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	61.4%	88.5%	60.1%	37.2%	74.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	59.0%	53.0%	90.8%	56.0%	—	71.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	51.6%	54.7%	93.4%	51.6%	27.6%	54.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	38.6%	78.5%	84.0%	46.7%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	87%	69.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	68.3°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	75%	67.5°F	2.9°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	61%	66.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	59%	66.0°F	2.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	28%	63.5°F	3.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261018-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 15 · 04:48 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 66°F · Sun Oct 18

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗