KSLC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

81%

78%

64%

62%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 74.1¢Risks 74.10u

ICONNO 25.9¢Risks 25.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +25.90u · ICON −25.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T16:20:12+00:00	79.6%	51.0%	71.4%	73.9%	53.3%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	79.6%	51.0%	68.6%	73.9%	53.3%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	79.6%	51.0%	68.6%	73.9%	53.3%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	79.6%	51.0%	68.6%	73.9%	53.3%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	79.6%	51.0%	68.6%	73.9%	53.3%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	65.3%	51.0%	68.6%	74.5%	57.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	65.3%	51.0%	68.6%	74.5%	57.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	65.3%	51.0%	68.6%	74.5%	57.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	65.3%	51.0%	68.6%	74.5%	57.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	65.3%	51.0%	56.4%	74.5%	57.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	65.3%	51.0%	56.4%	74.5%	57.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	65.3%	51.0%	56.4%	74.5%	57.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	63.6%	51.0%	56.4%	74.5%	57.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	63.6%	51.0%	56.4%	74.5%	57.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	63.6%	51.0%	56.4%	74.5%	57.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	63.6%	51.0%	56.4%	74.5%	57.3%
2026-10-16T04:24:54+00:00	63.6%	51.0%	56.4%	74.5%	57.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	63.6%	51.0%	73.2%	74.5%	57.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	63.6%	51.0%	73.2%	74.5%	57.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	63.6%	51.0%	73.2%	74.5%	57.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	63.6%	51.0%	73.2%	74.5%	57.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00	75.1%	51.0%	73.2%	74.5%	57.0%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	75.1%	51.0%	73.2%	74.5%	57.0%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	75.1%	51.0%	73.2%	74.5%	57.0%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	75.1%	51.0%	73.2%	74.5%	57.0%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00	75.1%	55.4%	75.3%	74.5%	57.0%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	75.1%	55.4%	75.3%	74.5%	57.0%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	75.1%	55.4%	75.3%	74.5%	57.0%
2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00	75.1%	55.4%	75.3%	74.5%	57.0%
2026-10-16T14:19:55+00:00	72.0%	55.4%	75.3%	74.2%	57.0%
2026-10-16T15:05:44+00:00	72.0%	57.5%	75.3%	74.2%	57.0%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	72.0%	57.6%	75.3%	74.2%	57.0%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	72.0%	57.6%	75.3%	74.2%	57.0%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	72.0%	57.6%	55.9%	74.2%	57.0%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	72.0%	57.6%	55.9%	74.2%	57.0%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	72.0%	57.6%	55.9%	74.2%	57.0%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00	73.6%	57.6%	55.9%	74.2%	68.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	73.6%	57.6%	55.9%	74.2%	68.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	73.6%	57.6%	55.9%	74.2%	68.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	73.6%	57.6%	55.9%	74.2%	68.4%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	73.6%	57.6%	55.9%	67.3%	68.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	73.6%	57.6%	28.6%	67.3%	68.4%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	73.6%	57.6%	28.6%	67.3%	68.4%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	73.6%	57.6%	28.6%	67.3%	68.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	66.3%	57.6%	28.6%	67.3%	68.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	66.3%	57.6%	28.6%	67.3%	68.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	66.3%	57.6%	28.6%	67.3%	68.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	66.3%	57.6%	28.6%	67.3%	68.4%
2026-10-17T04:42:19+00:00	66.3%	57.6%	28.6%	67.3%	68.4%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	66.3%	57.6%	57.1%	67.3%	68.4%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	66.3%	57.6%	57.1%	67.3%	68.4%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	66.3%	57.6%	57.1%	67.3%	68.4%
2026-10-17T07:44:58+00:00	73.9%	57.6%	57.1%	77.5%	53.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:40+00:00	73.9%	57.6%	57.1%	77.5%	53.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	73.9%	57.6%	57.1%	77.5%	53.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	73.9%	57.6%	57.1%	77.5%	53.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	73.9%	57.6%	57.1%	77.5%	53.4%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	73.9%	58.1%	73.0%	77.5%	53.4%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	73.9%	58.1%	73.0%	77.5%	53.4%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	73.9%	58.1%	73.0%	77.5%	53.4%
2026-10-17T13:47:56+00:00	76.2%	58.1%	73.0%	77.5%	53.4%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	76.2%	57.9%	73.0%	77.5%	53.4%
2026-10-17T15:25:11+00:00	76.2%	59.8%	73.0%	77.5%	53.4%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	76.2%	59.8%	73.0%	77.5%	53.4%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	76.2%	59.8%	73.0%	77.5%	53.4%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	76.2%	59.8%	51.3%	77.5%	53.4%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	76.2%	59.8%	51.3%	77.5%	53.4%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	76.2%	59.8%	51.3%	77.5%	53.4%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	82.5%	59.8%	51.3%	80.3%	47.7%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	82.5%	59.8%	51.3%	80.3%	47.7%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	82.5%	59.8%	51.3%	80.3%	47.7%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	82.5%	59.8%	51.3%	80.3%	47.7%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	82.5%	59.8%	51.3%	80.3%	47.7%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	82.5%	59.8%	46.1%	80.3%	47.7%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	82.5%	59.8%	46.1%	80.3%	47.7%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	82.5%	59.8%	46.1%	80.3%	47.7%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	79.2%	59.8%	46.1%	80.3%	47.7%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	79.2%	59.8%	46.1%	80.3%	47.7%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	79.2%	59.8%	46.1%	80.3%	47.7%
2026-10-18T04:14:32+00:00	79.2%	59.8%	46.1%	80.3%	47.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	79.2%	59.8%	79.0%	80.3%	47.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	79.2%	59.8%	79.0%	80.3%	47.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	79.2%	59.8%	79.0%	80.3%	47.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	79.2%	59.8%	79.0%	80.3%	47.7%
2026-10-18T08:01:44+00:00	82.6%	59.8%	79.0%	85.9%	62.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	82.6%	59.8%	79.0%	85.9%	62.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	82.6%	59.8%	79.0%	85.9%	62.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	82.6%	59.8%	79.0%	85.9%	62.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00	82.6%	59.8%	79.0%	85.9%	62.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	82.6%	63.9%	78.5%	85.9%	62.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:52+00:00	82.6%	63.9%	78.5%	85.9%	62.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	82.6%	63.9%	78.5%	85.9%	62.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	80.6%	63.5%	78.5%	86.0%	62.2%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	80.6%	63.5%	78.5%	86.0%	62.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	87%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	71.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	70.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	69.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	69.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	62%	68.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 16:20 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗