KSLC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST81%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

81%

78%

64%

62%

Consensus

81%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 74.1¢Risks 74.10u

ICONNO 25.9¢Risks 25.90u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +25.90u · ICON −25.90u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	36.9%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	43.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	—	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	54.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	52.4%	—	2.3%	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	75.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	53.8%	—	—	—	—	60.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	85.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	47.4%	—	69.4%	—	—	54.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	61.1%	—	83.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	1.4%	79.7%	—	—	62.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	45.9%	—	61.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	45.1%	62.4%	83.8%	0.8%	—	65.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	52.9%	—	83.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	54.4%	42.7%	81.6%	68.3%	—	61.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	51.5%	—	76.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	53.8%	35.1%	88.2%	72.4%	—	61.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	89.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	38.2%	84.6%	69.2%	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	90.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.8%	38.5%	88.8%	71.4%	—	41.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	49.1%	5.6%	87.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	44.8%	38.8%	83.3%	64.6%	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	43.7%	87.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	31.4%	42.7%	85.1%	64.4%	—	53.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.2%	16.5%	76.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	40.4%	50.0%	77.5%	73.7%	—	55.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	37.2%	51.0%	79.6%	—	—	53.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	62.2%	80.3%	77.3%	—	55.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	28.8%	52.1%	82.4%	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	56.5%	85.1%	72.7%	0.0%	58.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	40.0%	43.3%	88.2%	0.0%	—	57.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	51.2%	90.0%	74.0%	19.9%	65.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	51.2%	94.5%	71.7%	—	64.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	77.3%	94.5%	75.4%	—	69.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	44.9%	43.6%	92.3%	74.1%	—	67.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	55.4%	88.7%	73.9%	20.0%	68.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	45.8%	43.1%	88.9%	74.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	42.8%	40.0%	90.5%	73.2%	23.4%	72.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	60.5%	92.5%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
National Blend	87%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	86%	71.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	70.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	69.8°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	64%	69.0°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
ICON	62%	68.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 15 · 16:20 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗