KSLC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

73%

57%

30%

22%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 49.6¢Risks 49.60u

WN2NO 50.4¢Risks 50.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +50.40u · WN2 −50.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T03:45:39+00:00	68.8%	37.8%	70.7%	60.2%	53.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	68.8%	37.8%	70.7%	60.2%	53.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	68.8%	37.8%	70.7%	60.2%	53.4%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	68.8%	37.8%	70.7%	60.2%	53.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	68.8%	37.8%	70.7%	60.2%	53.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	61.9%	37.8%	70.7%	60.2%	50.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	61.9%	37.8%	70.7%	60.2%	50.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	61.9%	37.8%	70.7%	60.2%	50.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:55+00:00	61.9%	37.8%	70.7%	60.2%	50.7%
2026-10-14T10:34:24+00:00	61.9%	37.8%	70.7%	52.8%	50.7%
2026-10-14T11:20:59+00:00	61.9%	49.0%	69.5%	52.8%	50.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	61.9%	49.0%	69.5%	52.8%	50.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	61.9%	49.0%	69.5%	52.8%	50.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	71.4%	49.0%	69.5%	52.8%	50.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	71.3%	49.0%	69.5%	52.8%	50.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:35+00:00	72.9%	57.3%	67.2%	79.1%	51.1%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	72.9%	57.3%	67.2%	79.1%	51.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	72.9%	57.3%	39.2%	79.1%	51.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	72.9%	57.3%	39.2%	79.1%	51.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	72.9%	57.3%	39.2%	79.1%	51.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	72.9%	57.3%	39.2%	79.1%	51.1%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	74.5%	57.3%	39.2%	76.7%	29.6%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	74.5%	57.3%	39.2%	76.7%	29.6%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	74.5%	57.3%	39.2%	76.7%	29.6%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	74.5%	57.3%	39.2%	76.7%	29.6%
2026-10-18T23:13:43+00:00	74.5%	57.3%	22.5%	76.7%	29.6%
2026-10-18T23:58:55+00:00	74.5%	57.3%	22.5%	76.7%	29.6%
2026-10-19T00:44:10+00:00	74.5%	57.3%	22.5%	76.7%	29.6%
2026-10-19T01:29:37+00:00	72.9%	57.3%	22.5%	76.7%	29.6%
2026-10-19T02:14:47+00:00	72.9%	57.3%	22.5%	76.7%	29.6%
2026-10-19T02:59:59+00:00	72.9%	57.3%	22.5%	76.7%	29.6%
2026-10-19T03:45:06+00:00	72.9%	57.3%	22.5%	76.7%	29.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	77%	71.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	70.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	69.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	30%	66.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	66.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261019-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗