KSLC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 69°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST58%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

77%

73%

57%

30%

22%

Consensus

58%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 49.6¢Risks 49.60u

WN2NO 50.4¢Risks 50.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +50.40u · WN2 −50.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	39.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	24.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	50.6%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	48.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	42.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	1.6%	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	59.8%	—	70.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	—	—	—	54.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	81.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	63.4%	—	—	48.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	54.6%	—	78.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	43.3%	0.9%	74.6%	—	—	55.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	54.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	55.6%	79.1%	0.5%	—	58.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	78.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	35.7%	76.3%	61.6%	—	54.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	70.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	46.2%	28.3%	84.0%	65.6%	—	53.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	—	85.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.6%	30.9%	79.4%	61.8%	—	42.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	41.9%	—	87.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	42.5%	30.8%	84.3%	63.9%	—	33.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	3.6%	82.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	36.3%	30.7%	77.2%	56.1%	—	41.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	35.1%	82.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	23.7%	33.9%	79.1%	55.5%	—	44.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	11.3%	69.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	40.4%	69.6%	65.2%	—	46.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	41.1%	71.8%	—	—	43.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	28.5%	52.1%	72.4%	68.8%	—	44.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	41.6%	74.7%	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	27.3%	45.6%	77.8%	62.9%	0.0%	47.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	29.6%	32.6%	81.7%	0.0%	—	46.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	40.8%	39.6%	84.0%	63.7%	12.7%	54.6%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	33.6%	39.3%	90.3%	60.7%	—	52.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	37.7%	66.9%	90.0%	64.6%	—	57.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.5%	31.4%	86.5%	62.7%	—	55.1%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	42.0%	80.9%	61.9%	12.0%	55.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	30.0%	80.9%	62.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	29.3%	26.8%	82.8%	60.1%	13.8%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	77%	71.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	75%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	70.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	57%	69.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	69.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
ICON	30%	66.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	22%	66.3°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 69°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261019-TMAX-GE69
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 69°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗