KSLC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

54%

39%

26%

14%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 35.5¢Risks 35.55u

ICONNO 64.5¢Risks 64.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +64.45u · ICON −64.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:55+00:00	57.1%	34.9%	61.1%	60.6%	12.4%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	57.1%	34.9%	61.1%	60.6%	12.4%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	57.1%	34.9%	61.1%	60.6%	12.4%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	57.1%	34.9%	61.1%	60.6%	12.4%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	57.1%	34.9%	61.1%	60.6%	12.4%
2026-10-13T04:16:19+00:00	59.1%	31.4%	71.3%	58.1%	63.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	59.1%	31.4%	71.3%	58.1%	63.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	59.1%	31.4%	60.3%	58.1%	63.0%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	59.1%	31.4%	60.3%	58.1%	63.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	59.1%	31.4%	60.3%	58.1%	63.0%
2026-10-13T08:04:10+00:00	60.4%	31.4%	60.3%	48.8%	47.2%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	60.4%	31.4%	60.3%	48.8%	47.2%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	60.4%	31.4%	60.3%	48.8%	47.2%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	60.4%	31.4%	60.3%	48.8%	47.2%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	60.4%	31.4%	60.3%	48.8%	47.2%
2026-10-13T11:50:42+00:00	60.4%	25.8%	58.7%	48.8%	47.2%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	60.4%	25.8%	58.7%	48.8%	47.2%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	60.4%	25.8%	58.7%	48.8%	47.2%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	57.5%	25.8%	58.6%	48.8%	47.7%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	57.5%	25.8%	58.6%	48.8%	47.7%
2026-10-13T15:41:50+00:00	57.5%	19.1%	58.6%	48.8%	47.7%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	57.5%	19.1%	58.6%	48.8%	47.7%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	57.5%	19.1%	58.6%	48.8%	47.7%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	57.5%	19.1%	58.6%	48.8%	47.7%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	57.5%	19.1%	58.6%	48.8%	47.7%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	57.5%	19.1%	58.6%	48.8%	47.7%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	59.7%	19.1%	58.6%	48.8%	42.1%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	59.7%	19.1%	58.6%	48.8%	42.1%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	59.7%	19.1%	58.6%	48.8%	42.1%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	59.7%	19.1%	58.6%	48.8%	42.1%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	59.7%	19.1%	54.3%	48.2%	42.1%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	59.7%	19.0%	54.3%	48.2%	42.1%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	59.7%	19.0%	54.3%	48.2%	42.1%
2026-10-14T01:29:12+00:00	54.5%	19.0%	54.3%	48.2%	42.1%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	54.5%	19.0%	54.3%	48.2%	42.1%
2026-10-14T03:00:01+00:00	54.5%	19.0%	54.3%	48.2%	42.1%
2026-10-14T15:12:42+00:00	56.4%	23.4%	51.0%	39.1%	37.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	56.4%	23.4%	51.0%	39.1%	37.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	56.4%	23.4%	51.0%	39.1%	37.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	56.4%	23.4%	38.5%	39.1%	37.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	56.4%	23.4%	38.5%	39.1%	37.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	56.4%	23.4%	38.5%	39.1%	37.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00	56.4%	23.4%	38.5%	30.8%	38.1%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	56.4%	23.4%	38.5%	30.8%	38.1%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	56.4%	23.4%	38.5%	30.8%	38.1%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	56.4%	23.4%	38.5%	30.8%	38.1%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	56.4%	23.4%	38.5%	30.8%	38.1%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	56.4%	23.4%	40.4%	30.8%	38.1%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	56.4%	23.4%	40.4%	30.8%	38.1%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	56.4%	23.4%	40.4%	30.8%	38.1%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	55.6%	23.4%	40.4%	30.8%	38.1%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	55.6%	23.4%	40.4%	30.8%	38.1%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	55.6%	23.4%	40.4%	30.8%	38.1%
2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00	55.6%	23.4%	40.4%	30.8%	38.1%
2026-10-15T04:48:05+00:00	55.6%	23.4%	40.4%	30.8%	38.1%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	55.6%	23.4%	42.3%	30.8%	38.1%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	55.6%	23.4%	42.3%	30.8%	38.1%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	55.6%	23.4%	42.3%	30.8%	38.1%
2026-10-15T07:50:19+00:00	51.7%	23.4%	42.3%	51.6%	29.5%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	51.7%	23.4%	42.3%	51.6%	29.5%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	51.7%	23.4%	42.3%	51.6%	29.5%
2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00	51.7%	23.4%	42.3%	51.6%	29.5%
2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00	51.7%	23.4%	42.3%	51.6%	29.5%
2026-10-15T11:39:32+00:00	51.7%	23.4%	40.4%	51.6%	29.5%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	51.7%	23.1%	40.4%	51.6%	29.5%
2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00	51.7%	23.1%	40.4%	51.6%	29.5%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	56.9%	23.1%	40.4%	51.6%	29.5%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	56.9%	23.1%	40.4%	51.6%	29.6%
2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00	56.9%	22.6%	40.4%	51.6%	29.6%
2026-10-19T04:31:21+00:00	54.0%	39.1%	7.4%	57.5%	13.6%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	54.0%	39.1%	25.7%	57.5%	13.6%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	54.0%	39.1%	25.7%	57.5%	13.6%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	54.0%	39.1%	25.7%	57.5%	13.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	71.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	70.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	69.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	68.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	14%	66.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗