KSLC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST39%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

54%

39%

26%

14%

Consensus

39%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 35.5¢Risks 35.55u

ICONNO 64.5¢Risks 64.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +64.45u · ICON −64.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	3.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	29.2%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	39.3%	—	—	—	—	24.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	37.9%	—	—	—	—	31.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	34.6%	—	0.7%	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	58.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	35.3%	—	—	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	71.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	50.6%	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	67.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.6%	0.4%	62.6%	—	—	41.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	26.7%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	41.6%	67.7%	0.2%	—	44.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	23.2%	63.6%	47.1%	—	39.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	30.0%	—	56.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	31.6%	16.9%	73.0%	50.8%	—	38.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	74.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	18.4%	66.3%	46.0%	—	27.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	76.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	27.2%	17.8%	72.1%	47.5%	—	20.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	1.3%	68.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.4%	17.2%	62.1%	38.8%	—	25.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	24.9%	20.2%	68.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	19.0%	63.6%	37.3%	—	27.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	4.6%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	16.5%	23.2%	51.0%	46.1%	—	27.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	23.4%	53.0%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	13.9%	32.1%	53.1%	49.0%	—	25.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.8%	22.8%	55.3%	—	—	27.9%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	12.5%	25.5%	58.7%	41.3%	0.0%	27.3%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	15.4%	63.3%	0.0%	—	25.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	19.9%	65.9%	40.8%	4.2%	32.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	15.2%	19.1%	75.6%	37.0%	—	29.3%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	17.4%	42.6%	74.4%	40.1%	—	33.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	12.8%	67.5%	37.3%	—	30.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	19.1%	58.0%	35.6%	3.2%	29.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	11.1%	56.9%	35.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	8.9%	58.6%	31.8%	3.5%	30.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	19.2%	61.9%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	59%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS HRES	57%	71.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	70.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	69.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	26%	68.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	14%	66.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261019-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 71°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗