KSLC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

19%

18%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 10.0¢Risks 5.00u

ICONNO 90.0¢Risks 45.00u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.00u · ICON −45.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:56+00:00	29.6%	6.7%	31.9%	35.8%	5.9%
2026-10-12T08:34:32+00:00	29.6%	6.7%	31.9%	35.8%	5.9%
2026-10-12T09:19:39+00:00	29.6%	6.7%	31.9%	35.8%	5.9%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	29.6%	6.7%	31.9%	35.8%	5.9%
2026-10-12T10:50:13+00:00	29.6%	6.7%	31.9%	35.8%	5.9%
2026-10-12T11:35:39+00:00	29.6%	6.7%	26.6%	35.8%	5.9%
2026-10-12T12:20:51+00:00	29.6%	6.5%	26.6%	35.8%	5.9%
2026-10-12T13:05:59+00:00	29.6%	6.5%	26.6%	35.8%	5.9%
2026-10-12T13:51:09+00:00	26.0%	6.5%	26.6%	35.8%	5.9%
2026-10-12T14:41:19+00:00	26.1%	6.5%	26.6%	35.8%	6.0%
2026-10-12T15:27:43+00:00	26.1%	6.5%	26.6%	35.8%	6.0%
2026-10-12T16:12:58+00:00	26.1%	5.2%	26.6%	35.8%	6.0%
2026-10-12T16:58:06+00:00	26.1%	5.2%	26.6%	35.8%	6.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:15+00:00	26.1%	5.2%	32.2%	35.8%	6.0%
2026-10-12T18:28:21+00:00	26.1%	5.2%	32.2%	35.8%	6.0%
2026-10-12T19:13:28+00:00	26.1%	5.2%	32.2%	35.8%	6.0%
2026-10-12T19:58:35+00:00	25.5%	5.2%	32.2%	33.5%	47.2%
2026-10-12T20:43:45+00:00	25.5%	5.2%	32.2%	33.5%	47.2%
2026-10-12T21:28:51+00:00	25.5%	5.2%	32.2%	33.5%	47.2%
2026-10-12T22:13:58+00:00	25.5%	5.2%	32.2%	33.5%	47.2%
2026-10-12T22:59:13+00:00	25.5%	5.2%	40.5%	33.5%	47.2%
2026-10-12T23:44:20+00:00	25.5%	5.2%	40.5%	33.5%	47.2%
2026-10-13T00:29:26+00:00	25.5%	5.2%	40.5%	33.5%	47.2%
2026-10-13T01:14:42+00:00	25.5%	5.2%	40.5%	33.5%	47.2%
2026-10-13T01:59:50+00:00	31.5%	5.2%	40.5%	33.5%	47.2%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	31.5%	5.2%	40.5%	33.5%	47.2%
2026-10-13T03:30:04+00:00	31.5%	5.2%	40.5%	33.5%	47.2%
2026-10-13T04:16:19+00:00	31.5%	5.2%	40.5%	33.5%	47.2%
2026-10-13T05:01:47+00:00	31.5%	5.2%	40.5%	33.5%	47.2%
2026-10-13T05:46:53+00:00	31.5%	5.2%	29.3%	33.5%	47.2%
2026-10-13T06:32:13+00:00	31.5%	5.2%	29.3%	33.5%	47.2%
2026-10-13T07:17:20+00:00	31.5%	5.2%	29.3%	33.5%	47.2%
2026-10-13T08:04:10+00:00	31.2%	5.2%	29.3%	26.1%	26.1%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00	31.2%	5.2%	29.3%	26.1%	26.1%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00	31.2%	5.2%	29.3%	26.1%	26.1%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00	31.2%	5.2%	29.3%	26.1%	26.1%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00	31.2%	5.2%	29.3%	26.1%	26.1%
2026-10-13T11:50:42+00:00	31.2%	3.8%	25.6%	26.1%	26.1%
2026-10-13T12:35:51+00:00	31.2%	3.8%	25.6%	26.1%	26.1%
2026-10-13T13:20:56+00:00	31.2%	3.8%	25.6%	26.1%	26.1%
2026-10-13T14:06:04+00:00	28.6%	3.8%	25.6%	26.1%	26.6%
2026-10-13T14:56:06+00:00	28.6%	3.8%	25.6%	26.1%	26.6%
2026-10-13T15:41:50+00:00	28.6%	2.2%	25.6%	26.1%	26.6%
2026-10-13T16:27:05+00:00	28.6%	2.2%	25.6%	26.1%	26.6%
2026-10-13T17:12:13+00:00	28.6%	2.2%	25.6%	26.1%	26.6%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	28.6%	2.2%	25.6%	26.1%	26.6%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	28.6%	2.2%	25.6%	26.1%	26.6%
2026-10-13T19:27:30+00:00	28.6%	2.2%	25.6%	26.1%	26.6%
2026-10-13T20:12:39+00:00	30.5%	2.2%	25.6%	26.1%	22.2%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	30.5%	2.2%	25.6%	26.1%	22.2%
2026-10-13T21:43:19+00:00	30.5%	2.2%	25.6%	26.1%	22.2%
2026-10-13T22:28:26+00:00	30.5%	2.2%	25.6%	26.1%	22.2%
2026-10-13T23:13:39+00:00	30.5%	2.2%	22.2%	25.6%	22.2%
2026-10-13T23:58:47+00:00	30.5%	2.2%	22.3%	25.6%	22.2%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	30.5%	2.2%	22.3%	25.6%	22.2%
2026-10-14T01:29:12+00:00	26.1%	2.2%	22.3%	25.6%	22.2%
2026-10-14T02:14:21+00:00	26.1%	2.2%	22.3%	25.6%	22.2%
2026-10-14T03:00:01+00:00	26.1%	2.2%	22.3%	25.6%	22.2%
2026-10-14T03:45:40+00:00	26.1%	2.2%	22.3%	25.6%	22.2%
2026-10-14T04:30:47+00:00	26.1%	2.2%	22.3%	25.6%	22.2%
2026-10-14T05:15:55+00:00	26.1%	2.2%	22.3%	25.6%	22.2%
2026-10-14T06:01:02+00:00	26.1%	2.2%	22.3%	25.6%	22.2%
2026-10-14T06:46:19+00:00	26.1%	2.2%	22.3%	25.6%	22.2%
2026-10-14T07:31:29+00:00	18.2%	2.2%	22.3%	25.6%	15.8%
2026-10-14T08:16:39+00:00	18.2%	2.2%	22.3%	25.6%	15.8%
2026-10-14T09:01:49+00:00	18.2%	2.2%	22.3%	25.6%	15.8%
2026-10-14T09:46:55+00:00	18.2%	2.2%	22.3%	25.6%	15.8%
2026-10-14T10:34:24+00:00	18.2%	2.2%	22.3%	16.6%	15.8%
2026-10-14T11:20:59+00:00	18.2%	6.4%	17.2%	16.6%	15.8%
2026-10-14T12:06:15+00:00	18.2%	6.4%	17.2%	16.6%	15.8%
2026-10-14T12:51:22+00:00	18.2%	6.4%	17.2%	16.6%	15.8%
2026-10-14T13:36:31+00:00	25.9%	6.4%	17.2%	16.6%	15.8%
2026-10-14T14:26:52+00:00	26.0%	6.4%	17.1%	16.6%	16.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:42+00:00	26.0%	4.2%	17.1%	16.6%	16.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	26.0%	4.2%	17.1%	16.6%	16.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	26.0%	4.2%	17.1%	16.6%	16.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	26.0%	4.2%	10.3%	16.6%	16.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	26.0%	4.2%	10.3%	16.6%	16.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	26.0%	4.2%	10.3%	16.6%	16.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00	26.0%	4.2%	10.3%	11.6%	16.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	26.0%	4.2%	10.3%	11.6%	16.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	26.0%	4.2%	10.3%	11.6%	16.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	26.0%	4.2%	10.3%	11.6%	16.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	26.0%	4.2%	10.3%	11.6%	16.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	26.0%	4.2%	11.2%	11.6%	16.4%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	26.0%	4.2%	11.2%	11.6%	16.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	26.0%	4.2%	11.2%	11.6%	16.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	25.3%	4.2%	11.2%	11.6%	16.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	25.3%	4.2%	11.2%	11.6%	16.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	25.3%	4.2%	11.2%	11.6%	16.4%
2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00	25.3%	4.2%	11.2%	11.6%	16.4%
2026-10-15T04:48:05+00:00	25.3%	4.2%	11.2%	11.6%	16.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:23+00:00	25.3%	4.2%	12.1%	11.6%	16.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:28+00:00	25.3%	4.2%	12.1%	11.6%	16.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:39+00:00	25.3%	4.2%	12.1%	11.6%	16.4%
2026-10-15T07:50:19+00:00	20.4%	4.2%	12.1%	22.4%	8.6%
2026-10-15T08:35:52+00:00	20.4%	4.2%	12.1%	22.4%	8.6%
2026-10-15T09:21:47+00:00	20.4%	4.2%	12.1%	22.4%	8.6%
2026-10-15T10:07:36+00:00	20.4%	4.2%	12.1%	22.4%	8.6%
2026-10-15T10:53:43+00:00	20.4%	4.2%	12.1%	22.4%	8.6%
2026-10-15T11:39:32+00:00	20.4%	4.2%	9.4%	22.4%	8.6%
2026-10-15T12:24:56+00:00	20.4%	3.7%	9.4%	22.4%	8.6%
2026-10-15T13:10:33+00:00	20.4%	3.7%	9.4%	22.4%	8.6%
2026-10-15T13:55:54+00:00	24.3%	3.7%	9.4%	22.4%	8.6%
2026-10-15T14:48:27+00:00	24.3%	3.7%	9.4%	22.4%	8.7%
2026-10-15T15:34:35+00:00	24.3%	3.7%	9.4%	22.4%	8.7%
2026-10-15T16:20:13+00:00	24.3%	3.7%	9.4%	22.4%	8.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	24.3%	3.7%	8.1%	22.4%	8.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	24.3%	3.7%	8.1%	22.4%	8.7%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	24.3%	3.7%	8.1%	22.4%	8.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	24.3%	3.7%	8.1%	22.4%	8.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	12.9%	3.7%	8.1%	23.0%	10.5%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	12.9%	3.7%	8.1%	23.0%	10.5%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	12.9%	3.7%	8.1%	23.0%	10.5%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	12.9%	3.7%	8.1%	23.0%	10.5%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	12.9%	3.7%	4.3%	23.0%	10.5%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	12.9%	3.7%	4.3%	23.0%	10.5%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	12.9%	3.7%	4.3%	23.0%	10.5%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	12.0%	3.7%	4.3%	23.0%	10.5%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	12.0%	3.7%	4.3%	23.0%	10.5%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	12.0%	3.7%	4.3%	23.0%	10.5%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	12.0%	3.7%	4.3%	23.0%	10.5%
2026-10-16T04:24:54+00:00	12.0%	3.7%	4.3%	23.0%	10.5%
2026-10-16T05:10:32+00:00	12.0%	3.7%	10.3%	23.0%	10.5%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	12.0%	3.7%	10.3%	23.0%	10.5%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	12.0%	3.7%	10.3%	23.0%	10.5%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	12.0%	3.7%	10.3%	23.0%	10.5%
2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00	16.9%	3.7%	10.3%	23.0%	5.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	16.9%	3.7%	10.3%	23.0%	5.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	16.9%	3.7%	10.3%	23.0%	5.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	16.9%	3.7%	10.3%	23.0%	5.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00	16.9%	3.8%	8.2%	23.0%	5.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	16.9%	3.8%	8.2%	23.0%	5.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	16.9%	3.8%	8.2%	23.0%	5.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00	16.9%	3.8%	8.2%	23.0%	5.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:55+00:00	14.7%	3.9%	8.2%	18.0%	5.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:44+00:00	14.7%	4.3%	8.2%	18.0%	5.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	14.7%	4.3%	8.2%	18.0%	5.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	14.7%	4.3%	8.2%	18.0%	5.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00	15.8%	4.3%	2.7%	18.0%	9.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	15.8%	4.3%	2.7%	18.0%	9.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	15.8%	4.3%	2.7%	18.0%	9.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	15.8%	4.3%	2.7%	18.0%	9.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	15.8%	4.3%	2.7%	13.2%	9.9%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00	18.1%	6.8%	7.3%	19.7%	2.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00	18.1%	6.8%	7.3%	19.7%	2.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00	18.1%	6.8%	7.3%	19.7%	2.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00	18.1%	6.8%	7.3%	19.7%	2.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:44+00:00	20.1%	6.8%	7.3%	21.0%	4.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00	20.1%	6.8%	7.3%	21.0%	4.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00	20.1%	6.8%	7.3%	21.0%	4.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	20.1%	6.8%	7.3%	21.0%	4.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00	20.1%	6.8%	7.3%	21.0%	4.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00	20.1%	9.6%	5.3%	21.0%	4.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:52+00:00	20.1%	9.6%	5.3%	21.0%	4.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00	20.1%	9.6%	5.3%	21.0%	4.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00	18.0%	10.3%	5.3%	20.9%	4.8%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00	18.0%	10.3%	5.3%	20.9%	4.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:35+00:00	18.0%	11.5%	5.3%	20.9%	4.8%
2026-10-18T16:27:00+00:00	18.0%	11.5%	5.3%	20.9%	4.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:10+00:00	18.0%	11.5%	1.0%	20.9%	4.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:33+00:00	18.0%	11.5%	1.0%	20.9%	4.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:49+00:00	18.0%	11.5%	1.0%	20.9%	4.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:59+00:00	18.0%	11.5%	1.0%	20.9%	4.8%
2026-10-18T20:13:09+00:00	19.4%	11.5%	1.0%	18.7%	1.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:18+00:00	19.4%	11.5%	1.0%	18.7%	1.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:27+00:00	19.4%	11.5%	1.0%	18.7%	1.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:34+00:00	19.4%	11.5%	1.0%	18.7%	1.3%
2026-10-19T04:31:21+00:00	18.0%	11.5%	0.2%	18.7%	1.3%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00	18.0%	11.5%	2.1%	18.7%	1.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00	18.0%	11.5%	2.1%	18.7%	1.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00	18.0%	11.5%	2.1%	18.7%	1.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	19%	71.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	18%	70.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	69.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	6%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	68.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	1%	66.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261019-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗