KSLC / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 75°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST3%Oct 19 · 06:47 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

19%

18%

12%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 10.0¢Risks 5.00u

ICONNO 90.0¢Risks 45.00u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +45.00u · ICON −45.00u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	14.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.5%	—	—	—	—	8.3%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	8.2%	—	—	—	—	11.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	13.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	—	10.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	10.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	0.1%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	34.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	—	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	26.2%	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	42.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	11.8%	0.0%	36.1%	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	18.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	8.7%	18.0%	40.3%	0.0%	—	19.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	7.1%	35.0%	21.0%	—	16.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	27.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	10.7%	4.2%	43.9%	22.8%	—	14.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	44.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	4.5%	35.2%	18.4%	—	8.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	45.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.4%	3.9%	40.1%	18.4%	—	4.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	0.1%	35.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	3.4%	28.4%	12.2%	—	6.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	4.1%	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	3.6%	28.2%	10.6%	—	6.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	0.4%	17.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	4.4%	17.1%	14.2%	—	5.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	4.2%	17.7%	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	6.7%	17.0%	14.5%	—	4.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	3.5%	17.6%	—	—	5.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	4.0%	19.0%	9.4%	0.0%	4.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	1.6%	21.4%	0.0%	—	3.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	2.4%	2.2%	22.4%	8.1%	0.2%	5.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	1.3%	1.9%	30.4%	6.2%	—	4.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	1.4%	7.5%	27.6%	6.7%	—	4.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.8%	20.0%	5.3%	—	3.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	1.3%	12.7%	4.3%	0.1%	3.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	0.4%	11.1%	3.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.3%	10.8%	2.7%	0.1%	2.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	0.9%	11.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	19%	71.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	18%	70.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	12%	69.3°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	6%	71.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	68.6°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	1%	66.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 75°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261019-TMAX-GE75
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City runs hot-for-here: 75°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗