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KSLC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
95%
WN2
55%
HRES
52%
ICON
47%
AIFS
14%
Consensus
59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 54.8¢Risks 54.80u
VS
AIFSNO 45.2¢Risks 45.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.20u · AIFS −45.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-13T08:04:10+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00AIFS Single: 14.3% · 2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.3% · 2026-10-13T08:04:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.3% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.3% · 2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.3% · 2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 95.3% · 2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.2% · 2026-10-13T08:04:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.2% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.2% · 2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.2% · 2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 55.2% · 2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00IFS HRES: 51.9% · 2026-10-13T08:04:10+00:00IFS HRES: 51.9% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00IFS HRES: 51.9% · 2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00IFS HRES: 51.9% · 2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00IFS HRES: 51.9% · 2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00ICON: 46.8% · 2026-10-13T08:04:10+00:00ICON: 46.8% · 2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:00ICON: 46.8% · 2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:00ICON: 46.8% · 2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:00ICON: 46.8% · 2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:0010-13 08:0410-13 09:3410-13 11:05
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-13T08:04:10+00:0014.3%95.3%55.2%51.9%46.8%
2026-10-13T08:49:41+00:0014.3%95.3%55.2%51.9%46.8%
2026-10-13T09:34:47+00:0014.3%95.3%55.2%51.9%46.8%
2026-10-13T10:19:58+00:0014.3%95.3%55.2%51.9%46.8%
2026-10-13T11:05:23+00:0014.3%95.3%55.2%51.9%46.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble95%70.7°F4.9°F2026-10-12 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 255%63.2°F5.3°F2026-10-12 18:00Pending
IFS HRES52%62.8°F6.3°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
National Blend52%63.0°F11.0°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
ICON47%61.7°F9.9°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending
AIFS Single14%56.5°F5.6°F2026-10-13 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261020-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 63°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗