KSLC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 63°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST59%Oct 13 · 11:05 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

95%

55%

52%

47%

14%

Consensus

59%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 54.8¢Risks 54.80u

AIFSNO 45.2¢Risks 45.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +45.20u · AIFS −45.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	66.0%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	91.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	60.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	60.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	72.2%	—	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	52.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	83.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	72.0%	—	—	—	—	43.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	74.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	35.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	27.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	88.4%	—	—	46.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	86.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	68.2%	—	—	76.4%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.7%	—	15.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	3.9%	18.4%	41.9%	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	—	21.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.7%	67.0%	95.3%	47.2%	—	50.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	95.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	51.5%	97.2%	89.7%	—	65.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	94.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	70.4%	66.3%	95.2%	90.7%	—	78.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	68.8%	—	88.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	79.4%	82.6%	83.2%	—	81.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	96.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	64.7%	70.7%	98.1%	83.2%	—	82.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	67.4%	47.4%	95.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	65.4%	79.8%	96.6%	46.5%	—	79.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	69.8%	47.3%	94.8%	—	—	83.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	74.9%	91.7%	97.2%	95.7%	—	84.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	76.9%	90.4%	97.6%	—	—	88.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	86.9%	94.1%	98.2%	96.2%	—	91.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	88.6%	95.8%	91.2%	—	—	93.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	90.1%	97.4%	99.2%	97.8%	0.1%	92.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	90.8%	95.5%	95.3%	—	—	94.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	92.7%	97.1%	99.8%	96.0%	—	96.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	92.9%	98.2%	99.8%	0.5%	—	96.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	94.6%	98.9%	99.7%	95.8%	2.4%	95.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	95.7%	99.3%	99.8%	98.7%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	96.3%	99.4%	99.9%	98.7%	99.4%	98.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	99.6%	100.0%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	95%	70.7°F	4.9°F	2026-10-12 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	63.2°F	5.3°F	2026-10-12 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	52%	62.8°F	6.3°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	63.0°F	11.0°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
ICON	47%	61.7°F	9.9°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	14%	56.5°F	5.6°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 63°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261020-TMAX-GE63
Opened Oct 13 · 08:04 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 63°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗