KSLC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

90%

89%

84%

78%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 85.0¢Risks 42.50u

WN2NO 15.0¢Risks 7.50u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +7.50u · WN2 −7.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T15:12:42+00:00	66.5%	66.4%	74.7%	70.3%	54.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:58+00:00	66.5%	66.4%	74.7%	70.3%	54.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	66.5%	66.4%	74.7%	70.3%	54.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:13+00:00	66.5%	66.4%	74.0%	70.3%	54.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:22+00:00	66.5%	66.4%	74.0%	70.3%	54.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:29+00:00	66.5%	66.4%	74.0%	70.3%	54.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:38+00:00	77.1%	66.4%	74.0%	68.7%	65.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:52+00:00	77.1%	66.4%	74.0%	68.7%	65.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:57+00:00	77.1%	66.4%	74.0%	68.7%	65.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:04+00:00	77.1%	66.4%	74.0%	68.7%	65.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:10+00:00	77.1%	66.4%	74.0%	68.7%	65.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:34+00:00	77.1%	66.3%	81.0%	68.7%	65.4%
2026-10-15T00:15:26+00:00	77.1%	66.3%	81.0%	68.7%	65.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:13+00:00	77.1%	66.3%	81.0%	68.7%	65.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:21+00:00	75.4%	66.3%	81.0%	68.7%	65.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:31+00:00	75.4%	66.3%	81.0%	68.7%	65.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:39+00:00	75.4%	66.3%	81.0%	68.7%	65.4%
2026-10-15T04:02:31+00:00	75.4%	66.3%	81.0%	68.7%	65.4%
2026-10-16T04:24:54+00:00	74.7%	73.6%	82.2%	76.6%	65.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	74.7%	73.6%	82.9%	76.6%	65.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	74.7%	73.6%	82.9%	76.6%	65.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	74.7%	73.6%	82.9%	76.6%	65.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	74.7%	73.6%	82.9%	76.6%	65.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00	73.6%	73.6%	82.9%	76.6%	69.7%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	73.6%	73.6%	82.9%	76.6%	69.7%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	73.6%	73.6%	82.9%	76.6%	69.7%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	73.6%	73.6%	82.9%	76.6%	69.7%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00	73.6%	77.8%	88.2%	76.6%	69.7%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	73.6%	77.8%	88.2%	76.6%	69.7%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	73.6%	77.8%	88.2%	76.6%	69.7%
2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00	73.6%	77.8%	88.2%	76.6%	69.7%
2026-10-16T14:19:55+00:00	77.8%	77.8%	88.2%	75.8%	69.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:44+00:00	77.8%	79.5%	88.2%	75.8%	69.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	77.8%	79.5%	88.2%	75.8%	69.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	77.8%	79.5%	88.2%	75.8%	69.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	77.8%	79.5%	87.1%	75.8%	69.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	77.8%	79.5%	87.1%	75.8%	69.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	77.8%	79.5%	87.1%	75.8%	69.7%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00	80.9%	79.5%	87.1%	75.8%	83.3%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	80.9%	79.5%	87.1%	75.8%	83.3%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	80.9%	79.5%	87.1%	75.8%	83.3%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	80.9%	79.5%	87.1%	75.8%	83.3%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	80.9%	79.5%	87.1%	85.1%	83.3%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	80.9%	79.5%	66.6%	85.1%	83.3%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	80.9%	79.5%	66.6%	85.1%	83.3%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	80.9%	79.5%	66.6%	85.1%	83.3%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	82.0%	79.5%	66.6%	85.1%	83.3%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	82.0%	79.5%	66.6%	85.1%	83.3%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	82.0%	79.5%	66.6%	85.1%	83.3%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	82.0%	79.5%	66.6%	85.1%	83.3%
2026-10-17T15:25:11+00:00	91.2%	84.3%	93.1%	88.6%	84.9%
2026-10-17T16:10:34+00:00	91.2%	84.3%	93.1%	88.6%	84.9%
2026-10-17T16:55:42+00:00	91.2%	84.3%	93.1%	88.6%	84.9%
2026-10-17T17:40:51+00:00	91.2%	84.3%	84.3%	88.6%	84.9%
2026-10-17T18:25:58+00:00	91.2%	84.3%	84.3%	88.6%	84.9%
2026-10-17T19:11:05+00:00	91.2%	84.3%	84.3%	88.6%	84.9%
2026-10-17T19:56:14+00:00	92.0%	84.3%	84.3%	88.6%	90.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:32+00:00	92.0%	84.3%	84.3%	88.6%	90.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:39+00:00	92.0%	84.3%	84.3%	88.6%	90.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:55+00:00	92.0%	84.3%	84.3%	88.6%	90.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:05+00:00	92.0%	84.3%	84.3%	88.6%	90.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:14+00:00	92.0%	84.3%	78.0%	88.6%	90.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:27+00:00	92.0%	84.3%	78.0%	88.6%	90.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:56+00:00	92.0%	84.3%	78.0%	88.6%	90.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:15+00:00	92.0%	84.3%	78.0%	88.6%	90.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:23+00:00	92.0%	84.3%	78.0%	88.6%	90.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:31+00:00	92.0%	84.3%	78.0%	88.6%	90.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	92%	71.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	90%	70.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	70.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	84%	69.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	68.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗