KSLC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 66°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST83%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

92%

90%

89%

84%

78%

Consensus

83%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 85.0¢Risks 42.50u

WN2NO 15.0¢Risks 7.50u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +7.50u · WN2 −7.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	60.0%	—	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	40.0%	—	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	2.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	56.2%	—	—	—	—	28.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	59.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	20.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	76.6%	—	—	28.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	73.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	49.4%	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	1.2%	8.0%	23.8%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	9.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	46.5%	87.4%	27.5%	—	30.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	87.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	30.4%	91.3%	76.3%	—	44.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	36.1%	—	85.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	48.5%	43.9%	86.2%	77.2%	—	58.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	46.1%	—	72.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	58.7%	63.3%	64.1%	—	61.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	—	89.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	40.1%	46.7%	92.6%	63.1%	—	62.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	42.4%	23.9%	86.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	57.0%	87.8%	22.8%	—	57.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.7%	22.9%	82.8%	—	—	62.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	49.1%	75.6%	89.0%	84.5%	—	61.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	72.4%	89.6%	—	—	69.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	65.2%	79.7%	91.4%	85.3%	—	74.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	67.4%	83.6%	72.6%	—	—	76.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	69.7%	87.7%	95.1%	89.2%	0.0%	74.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	70.2%	81.7%	81.0%	—	—	78.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	73.6%	85.7%	97.9%	82.4%	—	83.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	73.3%	89.3%	97.8%	0.0%	—	82.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	76.7%	92.0%	97.1%	80.1%	0.2%	80.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	93.8%	97.5%	90.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	80.1%	94.1%	98.9%	90.0%	94.5%	87.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	95.7%	99.1%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	92%	71.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
ICON	90%	70.7°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	89%	70.9°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	84%	69.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	78%	68.1°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	66.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	66.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 66°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261020-TMAX-GE66
Opened Oct 14 · 15:12 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 66°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗