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KSLC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 19 · 11:21 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
65%
HRES
54%
WN2
53%
EPS
44%
ICON
36%
Consensus
53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 50.2¢Risks 50.25u
VS
ICONNO 49.8¢Risks 49.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +49.75u · ICON −49.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 64.4% · 2026-10-19T04:31:21+00:00AIFS Single: 64.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00AIFS Single: 64.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00AIFS Single: 64.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00AIFS Single: 64.8% · 2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:00AIFS Single: 64.8% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00AIFS Single: 64.8% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00AIFS Single: 64.8% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00AIFS Single: 64.8% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00AIFS Single: 64.8% · 2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.1% · 2026-10-19T04:31:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.1% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.1% · 2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.1% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.1% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.1% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.1% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 44.2% · 2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 11.0% · 2026-10-19T04:31:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.4% · 2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00WeatherNext 2: 37.4% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 52.7% · 2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00IFS HRES: 40.4% · 2026-10-19T04:31:21+00:00IFS HRES: 40.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00IFS HRES: 40.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00IFS HRES: 40.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00IFS HRES: 54.3% · 2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:00IFS HRES: 54.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00IFS HRES: 54.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00IFS HRES: 54.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00IFS HRES: 54.3% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00IFS HRES: 54.3% · 2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-19T04:31:21+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:00ICON: 44.4% · 2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:00ICON: 35.7% · 2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:00ICON: 35.7% · 2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:00ICON: 35.7% · 2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:00ICON: 35.7% · 2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:00ICON: 35.7% · 2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:00ICON: 35.7% · 2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:0010-19 04:3110-19 08:1910-19 11:21
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:31:21+00:0064.4%44.1%11.0%40.4%44.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:07+00:0064.4%44.1%37.4%40.4%44.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:14+00:0064.4%44.1%37.4%40.4%44.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:24+00:0064.4%44.1%37.4%40.4%44.4%
2026-10-19T07:33:39+00:0064.8%44.1%37.4%54.3%35.7%
2026-10-19T08:19:23+00:0064.8%44.1%37.4%54.3%35.7%
2026-10-19T09:04:29+00:0064.8%44.1%37.4%54.3%35.7%
2026-10-19T09:49:36+00:0064.8%44.1%37.4%54.3%35.7%
2026-10-19T10:35:22+00:0064.8%44.1%37.4%54.3%35.7%
2026-10-19T11:21:12+00:0064.8%44.2%52.7%54.3%35.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single65%72.0°F3.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast56%71.0°F3.1°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
National Blend56%71.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
IFS HRES54%70.9°F3.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 253%70.7°F2.9°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble44%69.9°F4.1°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
ICON36%69.2°F3.5°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗