KSLC / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST53%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

65%

54%

53%

44%

36%

Consensus

53%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 50.2¢Risks 50.25u

ICONNO 49.8¢Risks 49.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +49.75u · ICON −49.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.5%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	18.6%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	5.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	17.9%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	22.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	31.5%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	9.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	3.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	47.5%	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	20.2%	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	0.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	1.2%	5.9%	—	—	7.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	1.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	16.6%	60.4%	6.9%	—	8.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	7.6%	67.0%	42.0%	—	14.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	16.0%	13.4%	55.3%	41.7%	—	22.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	35.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	21.8%	25.5%	26.1%	—	24.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	8.5%	—	58.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	12.9%	65.5%	23.8%	—	23.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	3.8%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.6%	17.8%	52.6%	3.2%	—	17.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	3.1%	42.9%	—	—	20.9%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	11.9%	32.2%	52.8%	44.5%	—	19.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	12.2%	27.6%	52.8%	—	—	24.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	34.8%	55.8%	43.2%	—	28.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	21.1%	39.1%	25.7%	—	—	29.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	44.9%	64.1%	47.9%	0.0%	25.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	21.3%	33.5%	32.6%	—	—	29.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.0%	38.2%	74.5%	33.1%	—	34.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.4%	43.3%	72.4%	0.0%	—	31.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	23.3%	47.7%	66.9%	27.0%	0.0%	27.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	51.2%	67.5%	42.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	50.0%	76.4%	38.9%	51.2%	33.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	53.9%	77.2%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	65%	72.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	71.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	71.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	54%	70.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	53%	70.7°F	2.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	44%	69.9°F	4.1°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
ICON	36%	69.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261020-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 19 · 04:31 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 71°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗