KSLC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

66%

64%

50%

46%

21%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 43.1¢Risks 43.15u

AIFSNO 56.9¢Risks 56.85u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +56.85u · AIFS −56.85u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	86.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	—	—	66.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	73.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	39.5%	—	—	—	83.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	70.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	81.1%	—	—	—	68.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	73.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	—	—	41.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	40.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.3%	—	57.2%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	22.7%	—	34.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	10.4%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	59.0%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	29.6%	—	—	—	37.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.0%	—	3.0%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	16.4%	—	45.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	91.9%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	6.4%	17.1%	88.6%	—	71.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	98.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	84.7%	85.5%	35.6%	85.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	25.3%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	81.1%	95.8%	20.4%	99.3%	88.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	87.7%	—	97.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	90.7%	88.2%	88.6%	93.0%	93.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	93.9%	—	94.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	95.2%	99.4%	98.0%	88.9%	96.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	94.9%	—	99.1%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	94.7%	99.2%	98.5%	94.2%	98.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	97.0%	88.9%	98.0%	—	6.7%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	98.2%	99.9%	99.5%	99.6%	99.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	97.6%	99.6%	99.9%	—	99.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	98.8%	99.9%	100.0%	99.9%	99.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	99.3%	100.0%	100.0%	—	99.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	99.4%	99.9%	100.0%	99.6%	100.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	99.2%	100.0%	100.0%	—	100.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	99.2%	100.0%	100.0%	99.8%	100.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	99.5%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	99.5%	100.0%	100.0%	99.9%	100.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	100.0%	100.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	66%	62.7°F	10.4°F	2026-10-13 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	64%	60.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-13 12:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	59.0°F	9.7°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	50%	58.5°F	6.3°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
ICON	46%	57.4°F	9.9°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	21%	53.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-14 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261021-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 14 · 10:34 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 59°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗