KSLC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST96%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

96%

95%

95%

Consensus

96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

The models are within 4 percentage points. Under the proposed policy, no contract would match.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T16:20:14+00:00	83.3%	71.2%	68.9%	88.1%	87.0%
2026-10-15T17:05:25+00:00	83.3%	71.2%	68.9%	88.1%	87.0%
2026-10-15T17:50:48+00:00	83.3%	71.2%	68.9%	88.1%	87.0%
2026-10-15T18:36:00+00:00	83.3%	71.2%	68.9%	88.1%	87.0%
2026-10-15T19:21:10+00:00	83.3%	71.2%	68.9%	88.1%	87.0%
2026-10-15T20:06:21+00:00	86.7%	71.2%	68.9%	91.6%	75.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:33+00:00	86.7%	71.2%	68.9%	91.6%	75.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:45+00:00	86.7%	71.2%	68.9%	91.6%	75.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:54+00:00	86.7%	71.2%	68.9%	91.6%	75.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:05+00:00	86.7%	71.2%	84.3%	91.6%	75.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:16+00:00	86.7%	71.2%	84.3%	91.6%	75.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:27+00:00	86.7%	71.2%	84.3%	91.6%	75.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:50+00:00	90.0%	71.2%	84.3%	91.6%	75.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:21+00:00	90.0%	71.2%	84.3%	91.6%	75.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:34+00:00	90.0%	71.2%	84.3%	91.6%	75.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:43+00:00	90.0%	71.2%	84.3%	91.6%	75.0%
2026-10-16T04:24:55+00:00	90.0%	71.2%	84.3%	91.6%	75.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	90.0%	71.2%	78.6%	91.6%	75.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	90.0%	71.2%	78.6%	91.6%	75.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	90.0%	71.2%	78.6%	91.6%	75.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	90.0%	71.2%	78.6%	91.6%	75.0%
2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00	92.7%	71.2%	78.6%	91.6%	95.6%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	92.7%	71.2%	78.6%	91.6%	95.6%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	92.7%	71.2%	78.6%	91.6%	95.6%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	92.7%	71.2%	78.6%	91.6%	95.6%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00	92.7%	85.3%	89.3%	91.6%	95.6%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	92.7%	85.3%	89.3%	91.6%	95.6%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	92.7%	85.3%	89.3%	91.6%	95.6%
2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00	92.7%	85.3%	89.3%	91.6%	95.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:55+00:00	92.1%	85.3%	89.3%	92.9%	95.5%
2026-10-16T15:05:44+00:00	92.1%	86.3%	89.3%	92.9%	95.5%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	92.1%	86.3%	89.3%	92.9%	95.5%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	92.1%	86.3%	89.3%	92.9%	95.5%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	92.1%	86.3%	90.1%	92.9%	95.5%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	92.1%	86.3%	90.1%	92.9%	95.5%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	92.1%	86.3%	90.1%	92.9%	95.5%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00	91.2%	86.3%	90.1%	92.9%	93.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	91.2%	86.3%	90.1%	92.9%	93.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	91.2%	86.3%	90.1%	92.9%	93.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	91.2%	86.3%	90.1%	92.9%	93.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	91.2%	86.3%	90.1%	91.4%	93.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	91.2%	86.3%	84.7%	91.4%	93.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	91.2%	86.3%	84.7%	91.4%	93.9%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	91.2%	86.3%	84.7%	91.4%	93.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	94.0%	86.3%	84.7%	91.4%	93.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	94.0%	86.3%	84.7%	91.4%	93.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	94.0%	86.3%	84.7%	91.4%	93.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	94.0%	86.3%	84.7%	91.4%	93.9%
2026-10-17T04:42:19+00:00	94.0%	86.3%	84.7%	91.4%	93.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	94.0%	86.3%	94.3%	91.4%	93.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	94.0%	86.3%	94.3%	91.4%	93.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	94.0%	86.3%	94.3%	91.4%	93.9%
2026-10-17T07:44:58+00:00	96.7%	86.3%	94.3%	94.9%	98.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00	96.7%	86.3%	94.3%	94.9%	98.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	96.7%	86.3%	94.3%	94.9%	98.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	96.7%	86.3%	94.3%	94.9%	98.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	96.7%	86.3%	94.3%	94.9%	98.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:14+00:00	96.7%	95.3%	97.9%	94.9%	98.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:29+00:00	96.7%	95.3%	97.9%	94.9%	98.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	96.7%	95.3%	97.9%	94.9%	98.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:56+00:00	95.6%	95.3%	97.9%	94.9%	98.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:19+00:00	95.5%	95.1%	97.9%	94.9%	98.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	98%	74.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	98%	71.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	71.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	95%	70.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	95%	71.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	73%	67.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261021-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 15 · 16:20 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗