KSLC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST96%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

98%

96%

95%

95%

Consensus

96%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

The models are within 4 percentage points. Under the proposed policy, no contract would match.

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	28.8%	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	62.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	44.7%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	11.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	17.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	30.2%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	6.9%	—	12.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	2.2%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.3%	—	—	—	13.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	0.4%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	3.6%	—	17.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	71.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	3.6%	63.9%	—	39.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	90.5%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.1%	55.6%	57.0%	10.5%	56.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	5.9%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.5%	79.0%	4.1%	94.1%	60.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	58.9%	—	82.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	64.2%	59.1%	59.8%	69.7%	69.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	71.5%	—	72.8%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	74.5%	93.3%	85.5%	58.7%	80.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	91.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	71.4%	91.6%	87.1%	70.0%	85.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	56.0%	83.8%	—	0.5%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	83.9%	97.3%	92.7%	93.8%	95.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	80.4%	94.0%	97.2%	—	96.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	86.7%	98.0%	99.7%	97.7%	97.7%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	89.6%	99.6%	99.7%	—	97.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	89.8%	97.9%	99.2%	92.1%	98.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	88.1%	98.7%	99.4%	—	98.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	87.2%	99.5%	99.8%	95.1%	98.6%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	89.4%	99.8%	99.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	88.1%	99.8%	99.9%	95.5%	99.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	99.5%	99.6%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	98%	74.0°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	98%	71.1°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	71.3°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	95%	70.6°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	95%	71.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	73%	67.0°F	5.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261021-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 15 · 16:20 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗