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KSLC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
83%
ICON
69%
WN2
68%
EPS
66%
AIFS
65%
Consensus
73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 73.6¢Risks 36.82u
VS
AIFSNO 26.4¢Risks 13.18u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +13.18u · AIFS −13.18u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 68.4% · 2026-10-18T04:14:32+00:00AIFS Single: 68.4% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00AIFS Single: 68.4% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00AIFS Single: 68.4% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00AIFS Single: 68.4% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00AIFS Single: 68.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:44+00:00AIFS Single: 68.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00AIFS Single: 68.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00AIFS Single: 68.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00AIFS Single: 68.8% · 2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00AIFS Single: 68.8% · 2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00AIFS Single: 68.8% · 2026-10-18T12:33:53+00:00AIFS Single: 68.8% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00AIFS Single: 64.6% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00AIFS Single: 64.6% · 2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-18T04:14:32+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-18T08:01:44+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 52.8% · 2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.4% · 2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.4% · 2026-10-18T12:33:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 66.4% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.9% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.9% · 2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.4% · 2026-10-18T04:14:32+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-10-18T08:01:44+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 61.6% · 2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.3% · 2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.3% · 2026-10-18T12:33:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.3% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.3% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00WeatherNext 2: 68.3% · 2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00IFS HRES: 73.9% · 2026-10-18T04:14:32+00:00IFS HRES: 73.9% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00IFS HRES: 73.9% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00IFS HRES: 73.9% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00IFS HRES: 73.9% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00IFS HRES: 82.6% · 2026-10-18T08:01:44+00:00IFS HRES: 82.6% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00IFS HRES: 82.6% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00IFS HRES: 82.6% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00IFS HRES: 82.6% · 2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00IFS HRES: 82.6% · 2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00IFS HRES: 82.6% · 2026-10-18T12:33:53+00:00IFS HRES: 82.6% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00IFS HRES: 82.7% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00IFS HRES: 82.7% · 2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00ICON: 77.0% · 2026-10-18T04:14:32+00:00ICON: 77.0% · 2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:00ICON: 77.0% · 2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:00ICON: 77.0% · 2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:00ICON: 77.0% · 2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:00ICON: 69.3% · 2026-10-18T08:01:44+00:00ICON: 69.3% · 2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:00ICON: 69.3% · 2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:00ICON: 69.3% · 2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00ICON: 69.3% · 2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:00ICON: 69.3% · 2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:00ICON: 69.3% · 2026-10-18T12:33:53+00:00ICON: 69.3% · 2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:00ICON: 69.2% · 2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:00ICON: 69.2% · 2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:0010-18 04:1410-18 09:3210-18 14:56
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T04:14:32+00:0068.4%52.8%36.4%73.9%77.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:15+00:0068.4%52.8%61.6%73.9%77.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:22+00:0068.4%52.8%61.6%73.9%77.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:28+00:0068.4%52.8%61.6%73.9%77.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:39+00:0068.4%52.8%61.6%73.9%77.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:44+00:0068.8%52.8%61.6%82.6%69.3%
2026-10-18T08:47:13+00:0068.8%52.8%61.6%82.6%69.3%
2026-10-18T09:32:21+00:0068.8%52.8%61.6%82.6%69.3%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:0068.8%52.8%61.6%82.6%69.3%
2026-10-18T11:02:58+00:0068.8%52.8%61.6%82.6%69.3%
2026-10-18T11:48:18+00:0068.8%66.4%68.3%82.6%69.3%
2026-10-18T12:33:53+00:0068.8%66.4%68.3%82.6%69.3%
2026-10-18T13:19:03+00:0068.8%66.4%68.3%82.6%69.3%
2026-10-18T14:04:13+00:0064.6%65.9%68.3%82.7%69.2%
2026-10-18T14:56:01+00:0064.6%65.9%68.3%82.7%69.2%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES83%74.7°F4.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend75%72.0°F2.2°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
ICON69%72.5°F4.0°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 268%72.1°F3.4°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble66%72.1°F3.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single65%72.1°F4.3°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
NWS forecast55%71.0°F3.9°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261021-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗