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KSLC / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 71°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST73%Oct 18 · 14:56 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
83%
ICON
69%
WN2
68%
EPS
66%
AIFS
65%
Consensus
73%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 73.6¢Risks 36.82u
VS
AIFSNO 26.4¢Risks 13.18u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +13.18u · AIFS −13.18u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 31.1% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.6% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.4% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.6% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.3% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 13.9% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.7% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.3% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 33.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.1% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 23.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 31.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 13.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 54.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 46.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 8.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 65.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 49.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 67.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 83.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 62.4% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 68.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 78.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 85.6% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 84.5% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 71.4% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.7% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 27.5% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 20.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 54.1% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 14.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 35.4% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 36.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 46.7% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 36.9% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 30.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 46.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 63.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 86.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 85.2% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 76.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 76.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 87.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 86.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 85.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 75.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 60.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 20.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 11.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 17.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 50.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 64.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 38.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 43.9% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 41.3% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 12.0% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.6% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.3% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 26.5% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.3% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.4% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.5% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.4% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.9% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.2% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 20.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 54.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 58.9% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 64.4% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 63.9% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 68.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 65.6% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 65.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 67.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0010-06 12:0010-13 00:0010-19 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETIFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:000.0%———0.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0031.1%————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:0030.6%———12.0%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:007.5%————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0027.4%———14.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0016.9%————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:006.8%———14.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0010.5%————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:003.1%———26.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:0010.5%————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:000.1%———14.3%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:001.7%————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:0023.6%———13.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:002.7%————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:000.1%———16.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:0012.3%————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:001.4%———3.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:000.1%————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:000.0%———2.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:000.0%—6.7%——
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:000.0%———0.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:000.1%————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:000.0%—0.6%—1.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.1%——
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.0%———5.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:000.0%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:000.8%———1.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.0%——
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:000.0%—0.2%—1.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:000.0%—27.5%——
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.1%20.3%—7.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:003.8%—54.1%——
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:0015.8%13.7%14.5%0.7%14.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:004.5%—0.2%——
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:009.3%31.7%0.1%60.8%15.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0013.9%—35.4%——
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0016.4%13.4%13.8%20.5%20.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0021.1%—22.3%——
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0023.0%54.0%36.7%11.9%29.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0020.7%—46.7%——
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0018.4%46.7%36.9%17.3%34.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0024.6%8.8%30.3%—0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0029.1%65.4%46.5%50.0%54.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0023.5%49.1%63.2%—58.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0030.6%67.0%86.1%64.4%64.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0034.3%83.5%85.2%—63.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0033.0%62.4%76.0%38.5%68.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0028.2%68.3%76.6%—65.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0025.1%78.1%87.2%43.9%65.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0027.1%85.6%86.2%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0023.0%84.5%85.7%41.3%67.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00—71.4%75.1%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES83%74.7°F4.5°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
National Blend75%72.0°F2.2°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
ICON69%72.5°F4.0°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 268%72.1°F3.4°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble66%72.1°F3.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending
AIFS Single65%72.1°F4.3°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
NWS forecast55%71.0°F3.9°F2026-10-18 03:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 71°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261021-TMAX-GE71
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 71°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗