KSLC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

>99%

99%

91%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 95.5¢Risks 23.86u

EPSNO 4.5¢Risks 1.14u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +1.14u · EPS −1.14u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T04:24:55+00:00	96.3%	73.3%	83.3%	98.2%	65.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:33+00:00	96.3%	73.3%	82.8%	98.2%	65.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:58+00:00	96.3%	73.3%	82.8%	98.2%	65.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:08+00:00	96.3%	73.3%	82.8%	98.2%	65.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:18+00:00	96.3%	73.3%	82.8%	98.2%	65.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:28+00:00	96.7%	73.3%	82.8%	98.2%	98.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:38+00:00	96.7%	73.3%	82.8%	98.2%	98.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	96.7%	73.3%	82.8%	98.2%	98.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:58+00:00	96.7%	73.3%	82.8%	98.2%	98.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:24+00:00	96.7%	90.4%	86.3%	98.2%	98.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:43+00:00	96.7%	90.4%	86.3%	98.2%	98.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:51+00:00	96.7%	90.4%	86.3%	98.2%	98.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:53+00:00	96.7%	90.4%	86.3%	98.2%	98.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:55+00:00	97.6%	90.4%	86.3%	83.0%	98.3%
2026-10-17T04:42:19+00:00	97.7%	91.3%	94.6%	78.9%	98.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:28+00:00	97.7%	91.3%	99.1%	78.9%	98.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:39+00:00	97.7%	91.3%	99.1%	78.9%	98.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:49+00:00	97.7%	91.3%	99.1%	78.9%	98.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:58+00:00	99.0%	91.3%	99.1%	99.6%	99.4%
2026-10-17T08:30:41+00:00	99.0%	91.3%	99.1%	99.6%	99.4%
2026-10-17T09:16:41+00:00	99.0%	91.3%	99.1%	99.6%	99.4%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	99.0%	91.3%	99.1%	99.6%	99.4%
2026-10-17T10:46:56+00:00	99.0%	91.3%	99.1%	99.6%	99.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	>99%	73.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	>99%	73.6°F	6.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	>99%	69.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	99%	70.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	91%	67.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	59.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	59.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261022-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 59°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗