KSLC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 59°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST97%Oct 17 · 10:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

>99%

>99%

>99%

99%

91%

Consensus

97%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 95.5¢Risks 23.86u

EPSNO 4.5¢Risks 1.14u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +1.14u · EPS −1.14u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	73.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	80.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	84.1%	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	61.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.8%	—	—	—	79.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	34.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	35.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	42.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	33.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	32.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	94.1%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	15.7%	—	96.0%	—	55.6%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	26.6%	—	95.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	94.7%	—	74.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	32.7%	—	29.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	55.4%	15.5%	16.7%	—	67.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	31.4%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	75.9%	45.1%	22.4%	25.7%	72.5%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	86.0%	—	61.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	85.2%	98.2%	99.8%	74.0%	85.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	88.8%	—	98.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	89.3%	98.4%	49.2%	71.7%	84.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	90.2%	—	97.2%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	93.6%	99.3%	99.9%	99.8%	99.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	96.1%	—	100.0%	—	98.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	95.5%	100.0%	100.0%	91.0%	99.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	93.0%	98.1%	99.9%	—	99.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	93.2%	100.0%	100.0%	95.9%	98.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	95.2%	100.0%	100.0%	—	99.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	93.0%	100.0%	99.9%	99.9%	97.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	87.8%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	93.8%	100.0%	100.0%	99.7%	99.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	100.0%	99.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	>99%	73.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
ICON	>99%	73.6°F	6.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	>99%	69.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
AIFS Single	99%	70.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	91%	67.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	59.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
National Blend	53%	59.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 59°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261022-TMAX-GE59
Opened Oct 16 · 04:24 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 59°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗