KSLC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

96%

92%

89%

74%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 85.9¢Risks 85.85u

HRESNO 14.1¢Risks 14.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +14.15u · HRES −14.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T15:05:44+00:00	96.4%	88.5%	81.0%	78.9%	97.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:57+00:00	96.4%	88.6%	81.0%	78.9%	97.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:13+00:00	96.4%	88.6%	81.0%	78.9%	97.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:29+00:00	96.4%	88.6%	94.1%	78.9%	97.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:39+00:00	96.4%	88.6%	94.1%	78.9%	97.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:46+00:00	96.4%	88.6%	94.1%	78.9%	97.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:13+00:00	96.4%	88.6%	94.1%	78.9%	97.4%
2026-10-16T20:22:40+00:00	96.4%	88.6%	94.1%	78.9%	97.4%
2026-10-16T21:07:48+00:00	96.4%	88.6%	94.1%	78.9%	97.4%
2026-10-16T21:52:56+00:00	96.4%	88.6%	94.1%	78.9%	97.4%
2026-10-16T22:38:10+00:00	96.4%	88.6%	94.1%	74.3%	97.4%
2026-10-16T23:23:35+00:00	96.4%	88.6%	91.8%	74.3%	97.4%
2026-10-17T00:09:44+00:00	96.4%	88.6%	91.8%	74.3%	97.4%
2026-10-17T00:55:00+00:00	96.4%	88.6%	91.8%	74.3%	97.4%
2026-10-17T01:40:10+00:00	96.5%	88.6%	91.8%	74.3%	97.4%
2026-10-17T02:25:23+00:00	96.5%	88.6%	91.8%	74.3%	97.4%
2026-10-17T03:10:30+00:00	96.5%	88.6%	91.8%	74.3%	97.4%
2026-10-17T03:55:42+00:00	96.5%	88.6%	91.8%	74.3%	97.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	97%	73.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	69.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	92%	66.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	89%	67.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	63.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	60.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	60.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261022-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 60°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗