KSLC / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Salt Lake City, UTHigh ≥ 60°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST89%Oct 17 · 03:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

97%

96%

92%

89%

74%

Consensus

89%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 85.9¢Risks 85.85u

HRESNO 14.1¢Risks 14.15u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +14.15u · HRES −14.15u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	68.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	76.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	—	—	76.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	70.8%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	80.7%	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	75.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	2.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	30.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	5.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	36.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	27.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	4.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	27.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	92.0%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	12.2%	—	94.4%	—	49.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	93.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.7%	—	92.7%	—	69.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	26.9%	—	24.2%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	48.6%	11.8%	12.8%	—	61.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	61.6%	—	25.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	70.2%	38.2%	17.5%	20.4%	66.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	81.6%	—	54.3%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	80.6%	97.2%	99.6%	67.7%	80.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	84.9%	—	97.0%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	85.4%	97.5%	41.7%	64.9%	79.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	86.3%	—	95.7%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	90.7%	98.9%	99.9%	99.6%	98.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	94.0%	—	99.9%	—	97.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	93.2%	99.9%	99.9%	87.1%	98.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	89.7%	96.9%	99.8%	—	99.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	89.9%	99.9%	100.0%	93.5%	96.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	92.5%	99.9%	100.0%	—	98.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	89.4%	100.0%	99.8%	99.8%	95.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	82.3%	100.0%	100.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	90.2%	100.0%	100.0%	99.3%	99.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	100.0%	99.8%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
ICON	97%	73.4°F	7.1°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	96%	69.3°F	5.4°F	2026-10-16 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	92%	66.0°F	4.7°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	89%	67.4°F	6.5°F	2026-10-16 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	74%	63.8°F	6.6°F	2026-10-16 12:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	60.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-16 14:00	Pending
National Blend	52%	60.0°F	8.9°F	2026-10-16 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 60°F · KSLC

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KSLC-20261022-TMAX-GE60
Opened Oct 16 · 15:05 UTC

Original listing: Salt Lake City high ≥ 60°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗